Isbn: 9780262516723 - streetlights and shadows: searching for the keys to adaptive decision making (30 resultados)

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Paperback. Condición: Good. An expert explains how the conventional wisdom about decision making can get us into trouble--and why experience can't be replaced by rules, procedures, or analytical methods.In making decisions, when should we go with our gut and when should we try to analyze every option? When should we use our intuition and when should we rely on logic and statistics? Most of us would probably agree that for important decisions, we should follow certain guidelines--gather as much information as possible, compare the options, pin down the goals before getting started. But in practice we make some of our best decisions by adapting to circumstances rather than blindly following procedures. In Streetlights and Shadows, Gary Klein debunks the conventional wisdom about how to make decisions. He takes ten commonly accepted claims about decision making and shows that they are better suited for the laboratory than for life. The standard advice works well when everything is clear, but the tough decisions involve shadowy conditions of complexity and ambiguity. Gathering masses of information, for example, works if the information is accurate and complete--but that doesn't often happen in the real world. (Think about the careful risk calculations that led to the downfall of the Wall Street investment houses.) Klein offers more realistic ideas about how to make decisions in real-life settings. He provides many examples--ranging from airline pilots and weather forecasters to sports announcers and Captain Jack Aubrey in Patrick O'Brian's Master and Commander novels--to make his point. All these decision makers saw things that others didn't. They used their expertise to pick up cues and to discern patterns and trends. We can make better decisions, Klein tells us, if we are prepared for complexity and ambiguity and if we will stop expecting the data to tell us everything.…

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paperback. Condición: New. Brand new book, sourced directly from publisher. Dispatch time is 6-7 days from our warehouse. Book will be sent in robust, secure packaging to ensure it reaches you securely.

Condición: New.

Paperback. Condición: new. Paperback. An expert explains how the conventional wisdom about decision making can get us into trouble-and why experience can't be replaced by rules, procedures, or analytical methodsIn making decisions, when should we go with our gut and when should we try to analyze every option? When should we use our intuition and when should we rely on logic and statistics? Most of us would probably agree that for important decisions, we should follow certain guidelines-gather as much information as possible, compare the options, pin down the goals before getting started. But in practice we make some of our best decisions by adapting to circumstances rather than blindly following procedures.In Streetlights and Shadows, Gary Klein debunks the conventional wisdom about how to make decisions. He takes ten commonly accepted claims about decision making and shows that they are better suited for the laboratory than for life. The standard advice works well when everything is clear, but the tough decisions involve shadowy conditions of complexity and ambiguity. Gathering masses of information, for example, works if the information is accurate and complete-but that doesn't often happen in the real world. (Think about the careful risk calculations that led to the downfall of the Wall Street investment houses.)Klein offers more realistic ideas about how to make decisions in real-life settings. He provides many examples-ranging from airline pilots and weather forecasters to sports announcers and Captain Jack Aubrey in Patrick O'Brian's Master and Commander novels-to make his point. All these decision makers saw things that others didn't. They used their expertise to pick up cues and to discern patterns and trends. We can make better decisions, Klein tells us, if we are prepared for complexity and ambiguity and if we will stop expecting the data to tell us everything."I know of no one who combines theory and observation-intellectual rigor and painstaking observation of the real world-so brilliantly and gracefully as Gary Klein."-Malcolm Gladwell, author of Outliers and Blink An expert explains how the conventional wisdom about decision making can get us into troubleand why experience can't be replaced by rules, procedures, or analytical methods. Shipping may be from multiple locations in the US or from the UK, depending on stock availability.…

Paperback. Condición: Very Good. The book has been read, but is in excellent condition. Pages are intact and not marred by notes or highlighting. The spine remains undamaged.

paperback. Condición: Very Good. Streetlights and Shadows: Searching for the Keys to Adaptive Decision Making (A Bradford Book) This book is in very good condition and will be shipped within 24 hours of ordering. The cover may have some limited signs of wear but the pages are clean, intact and the spine remains undamaged. This book has clearly been well maintained and looked after thus far. Money back guarantee if you are not satisfied. See all our books here, order more than 1 book and get discounted shipping.…

Condición: As New. Unread book in perfect condition.

paperback. Condición: Very Good. This book is in very good condition and will be shipped within 24 hours of ordering. The cover may have some limited signs of wear but the pages are clean, intact and the spine remains undamaged. This book has clearly been well maintained and looked after thus far. Money back guarantee if you are not satisfied. See all our books here, order more than 1 book and get discounted shipping. …

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Paperback. Condición: New.

paperback. Condición: New. Brand new book, sourced directly from publisher. Dispatch time is 24-48 hours from our warehouse. Book will be sent in robust, secure packaging to ensure it reaches you securely.

Condición: New. 2011. Paperback. An expert explains how the conventional wisdom about decision making can get us into trouble--and why experience can't be replaced by rules, procedures, or analytical methods. Num Pages: 352 pages, 30 figures. BIC Classification: GPQ; JMR; KJMD. Category: (P) Professional & Vocational. Dimension: 143 x 222 x 24. Weight in Grams: 476. . . . . . …

Condición: New. pp. 352 30 Figures.

Paperback. Condición: Brand New. 352 pages. 9.00x5.50x1.00 inches. In Stock.

Condición: New. pp. 352.

Condición: New. 2011. Paperback. An expert explains how the conventional wisdom about decision making can get us into trouble--and why experience can't be replaced by rules, procedures, or analytical methods. Num Pages: 352 pages, 30 figures. BIC Classification: GPQ; JMR; KJMD. Category: (P) Professional & Vocational. Dimension: 143 x 222 x 24. Weight in Grams: 476. . . . . . Books ship from the US and Ireland. …

Condición: New. In English.

Condición: New.

Paperback / softback. Condición: New. New copy - Usually dispatched within 4 working days.

Condición: As New. Unread book in perfect condition.

Condición: New. pp. 352.

Taschenbuch. Condición: Neu. Neuware - An expert explains how conventional wisdom about decision making can get us into troubleand why experience can't be replaced by rules, procedures, or analytical methods.In making decisions, when should we go with our gut and when should we try to analyze every option When should we use our intuition and when should we rely on logic and statistics Most of us would probably agree that for important decisions, we should follow certain guidelinesgather as much information as possible, compare the options, pin down the goals before getting started. But in practice we make some of our best decisions by adapting to circumstances rather than blindly following procedures.In Streetlights and Shadows, Gary Klein debunks the conventional wisdom about how to make decisions. He takes ten commonly accepted claims about decision making and shows that they are better suited for the laboratory than for life. The standard advice works well when everything is clear, but the tough decisions involve shadowy conditions of complexity and ambiguity. Gathering masses of information, for example, works if the information is accurate and completebut that doesn't often happen in the real world. (Think about the careful risk calculations that led to the downfall of the Wall Street investment houses.)Klein offers more realistic ideas about how to make decisions in real-life settings. He provides many examplesranging from airline pilots and weather forecasters to sports announcers and Captain Jack Aubrey in Patrick O'Brian's Master and Commander novelsto make his point. All these decision makers saw things that others didn't. They used their expertise to pick up cues and to discern patterns and trends. We can make better decisions, Klein tells us, if we are prepared for complexity and ambiguity and if we will stop expecting the data to tell us everything."I know of no one who combines theory and observationintellectual rigor and painstaking observation of the real worldso brilliantly and gracefully as Gary Klein." Malcolm Gladwell, author of Outliers and Blink.…

Condición: NEW.

Paperback. Condición: New.

Paperback. Condición: new. Paperback. An expert explains how the conventional wisdom about decision making can get us into trouble-and why experience can't be replaced by rules, procedures, or analytical methodsIn making decisions, when should we go with our gut and when should we try to analyze every option? When should we use our intuition and when should we rely on logic and statistics? Most of us would probably agree that for important decisions, we should follow certain guidelines-gather as much information as possible, compare the options, pin down the goals before getting started. But in practice we make some of our best decisions by adapting to circumstances rather than blindly following procedures.In Streetlights and Shadows, Gary Klein debunks the conventional wisdom about how to make decisions. He takes ten commonly accepted claims about decision making and shows that they are better suited for the laboratory than for life. The standard advice works well when everything is clear, but the tough decisions involve shadowy conditions of complexity and ambiguity. Gathering masses of information, for example, works if the information is accurate and complete-but that doesn't often happen in the real world. (Think about the careful risk calculations that led to the downfall of the Wall Street investment houses.)Klein offers more realistic ideas about how to make decisions in real-life settings. He provides many examples-ranging from airline pilots and weather forecasters to sports announcers and Captain Jack Aubrey in Patrick O'Brian's Master and Commander novels-to make his point. All these decision makers saw things that others didn't. They used their expertise to pick up cues and to discern patterns and trends. We can make better decisions, Klein tells us, if we are prepared for complexity and ambiguity and if we will stop expecting the data to tell us everything."I know of no one who combines theory and observation-intellectual rigor and painstaking observation of the real world-so brilliantly and gracefully as Gary Klein."-Malcolm Gladwell, author of Outliers and Blink An expert explains how the conventional wisdom about decision making can get us into troubleand why experience can't be replaced by rules, procedures, or analytical methods. Shipping may be from our Sydney, NSW warehouse or from our UK or US warehouse, depending on stock availability.…

Paperback. Condición: New.