9781334434211 - Modeling the Formation of Expectations: The History of Energy Demand Forecasts (Classic Reprint) de D. Sterman, John (3 resultados)

PAP. Condición: New. New Book. Shipped from UK. Established seller since 2000.

PAP. Condición: New. New Book. Shipped from UK. Established seller since 2000.

Paperback. Condición: New. Print on Demand. This book examines the evolution of energy demand forecasts from 1973 to 2000 in the United States. By uncovering the reasoning behind the significant errors made during this period, the author sheds light on the nature of expectation formation and forecasting in general. The author employs a behavioral model to test the ability of adaptive expectations and univariate trend extrapolation to explain the history of energy demand forecasts. By looking at trends in energy consumption, the model shows that extrapolative expectations, aided by delays in information processing and organizational response, can explain long-term shifts in energy demand forecasts. It also suggests that forecasters exhibit a conservative bias when making projections further into the future. The author concludes that while univariate trend extrapolation can be an adequate model for explaining forecasts, the inclusion of exogenous variables and expert judgment is necessary for accurate forecasting. Ultimately, the book has significant implications for how we think about behavioral modeling of expectation formation. This book is a reproduction of an important historical work, digitally reconstructed using state-of-the-art technology to preserve the original format. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in the book. print-on-demand item.