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Modeling the Formation of Expectations: The History of Energy Demand Forecasts (Classic Reprint) - Tapa blanda
Sinopsis
Excerpt from Modeling the Formation of Expectations
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This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works. This text has been digitally restored from a historical edition. Some errors may persist, however we consider it worth publishing due to the work's historical value.
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Excerpt from Modeling the Formation of Expectations: The History of Energy Demand Forecasts
The model described here tests the ability of adaptive expectations and trend extrapolation to explain the history of energy demand forecasts. Energy demand is forecast by an exponential extrapolation of the expected growth rate of energy consumption. The expected rate of consumption growth is determined by the past rate of growth of actual energy consumption.
About the Publisher
Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com
This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
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Modeling the Formation of Expectations: The History of Energy Demand Forecasts
Impresión bajo demandaLibrería: Forgotten Books, London, Reino Unido
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Paperback. Condición: New. Print on Demand. This book examines the evolution of energy demand forecasts from 1973 to 2000 in the United States. By uncovering the reasoning behind the significant errors made during this period, the author sheds light on the nature of expectation formation and forecasting in general. The author employs a behavioral model to test the ability of adaptive expectations and univariate trend extrapolation to explain the history of energy demand forecasts. By looking at trends in energy consumption, the model shows that extrapolative expectations, aided by delays in information processing and organizational response, can explain long-term shifts in energy demand forecasts. It also suggests that forecasters exhibit a conservative bias when making projections further into the future. The author concludes that while univariate trend extrapolation can be an adequate model for explaining forecasts, the inclusion of exogenous variables and expert judgment is necessary for accurate forecasting. Ultimately, the book has significant implications for how we think about behavioral modeling of expectation formation. This book is a reproduction of an important historical work, digitally reconstructed using state-of-the-art technology to preserve the original format. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in the book. print-on-demand item. Nº de ref. del artículo: 9781334434211_0
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Modeling the Formation of Expectations The History of Energy Demand Forecasts Classic Reprint
Librería: PBShop.store US, Wood Dale, IL, Estados Unidos de America
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
PAP. Condición: New. New Book. Shipped from UK. Established seller since 2000. Nº de ref. del artículo: LW-9781334434211
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Modeling the Formation of Expectations The History of Energy Demand Forecasts Classic Reprint
Librería: PBShop.store UK, Fairford, GLOS, Reino Unido
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
PAP. Condición: New. New Book. Shipped from UK. Established seller since 2000. Nº de ref. del artículo: LW-9781334434211
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