Too Many Humans! : The Imperative to Return to a Human Population of 1 Billion

This “Little Green Book” presents 21 proposals for reducing the size of the human population to 1 billion people, in order to enable humanity to live sustainably on Earth. For centuries and millennia, humans have exploited the inherited riches of the Earth without significant observable permanent harm. The Industrial Revolution, which used non-human, non-animal power sources to accomplish tasks, began in the 18th century in Europe and North America. In the early 19th century, that power increasingly came from the burning of fossil fuels, primarily coal and oil, and that burning created carbon dioxide. The ills of fossil fuel burning were compounded by population growth. Around the beginning of the 19th century, medical and nutritional advances led to the reduction of the death rate and populations began to grow more rapidly. This change can be said to be the beginning of the Demographic Transition, which is defined as the period during which there is a large gap between the declining death rate and the subsequent reduction of the birth rate which typically occurs several generations later. Proposed here are additional stages of the model to show a Sustainable Demographic Transition (SDT) to a human population of 1 billion, which was the population of the Earth around 1800. The question posed in this book is whether the human birth rate can be reduced soon enough to avoid much of the potential further damage to the Earth, and reduced further to enable remediation of previous damage. The year 1800 is chosen in this book as the pivotal year for the Industrial Revolution and Demographic Transition. At that time, the carbon dioxide density in the atmosphere was approximately 300 parts per million. During the subsequent 215 years, the Industrial Revolution accelerated and, together with exponential population growth, has degraded the ability of the Earth to sustain life. Whatever damage to the Earth the Industrial Revolution would have produced for a planet supporting one billion humans, that damage has been multiplied, so far, by the growth of the human population since 1800 to 7.3 billion by mid-2015. If not stopped, the multiplier will continue to grow. Even at the current and seemingly slow annual growth rate of 1.2%, the Earth’s population will double to 14.6 billion in 58 years. Such a total is inconceivable, and avoidable. There has been debate about whether the sheer number of people is the problem or whether their unequal or excessive consumption patterns are the problem. The problem with that debate is that it poses a false choice, which need not be resolved here. That is, while there is no question that there is substantial inequality among people of income and wealth and therefore, of Earth-degrading consumption, there is also no question that every human being has an impact on the Earth. Putting it simply, more humans produce more carbon. Further, more humans have produced too many more humans. There are two basic elements of each human’s impact on the Earth. First s/he consumes energy and resources, and s/he has the capacity to have children. Whatever the world’s consumption patterns, there will be less consumption and Earth degradation when there are fewer people. This truth is a corollary to the message of population stabilization advocates since the 1970s – “Whatever your cause, it’s a lost cause until we control population growth.” The first of the 21 proposals is that all humans be encouraged to have no children, or at most, one child. The alternative to achieving population reduction through voluntary means is to endure catastrophes and collapse and gross reduction of biodiversity.