Predictive Behavior: An Experimental Study: 403 (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 403) - Tapa blanda

Brennscheidt, Gunnar

 
9783540573111: Predictive Behavior: An Experimental Study: 403 (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 403)
Tapa blanda
ISBN 10: 3540573119 ISBN 13: 9783540573111
Editorial: Springer - Verlag, 1993

Sinopsis

This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This designprovides an optimal background for rational expectations and least-squares learning. As expected, these hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of rationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather than levels,underestimation of changes and overvaluation of volatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior is observed. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts such as prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc.,are studied.

"Sinopsis" puede pertenecer a otra edición de este libro.

Reseña del editor

This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This designprovides an optimal background for rational expectations and least-squares learning. As expected, these hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of rationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather than levels,underestimation of changes and overvaluation of volatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior is observed. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts such as prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc.,are studied.

"Sobre este título" puede pertenecer a otra edición de este libro.

Editorial
Springer - Verlag
Año de publicación
1993
Idioma
Inglés
ISBN 10 
3540573119
ISBN 13 
9783540573111
Encuadernación
Tapa blanda
Número de páginas
244
Contacto del fabricante
ProductSafety@springernature.com
ProductSafety@springernature.com

Poststr. 9
Darmstadt
64293
Alemania

Otras ediciones populares con el mismo título

9780387573113: Predictive Behavior: An Experimental Study (Lecture Notes in Economics & Mathematical Systems)

Edición Destacada

ISBN 10:  0387573119 ISBN 13:  9780387573113
Editorial: Springer Verlag, 1993
Tapa blanda