Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

3,97 valoración promedio
( 416 valoraciones por Goodreads )
 
9780743254236: Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You
Ver todas las copias de esta edición ISBN.
 
 

Book by Gigerenzer Gerd

"Sinopsis" puede pertenecer a otra edición de este libro.

Reseña del editor:

At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics.

Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics.

Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors.

Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity.

To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap.

This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

"Sobre este título" puede pertenecer a otra edición de este libro.

Otras ediciones populares con el mismo título

9780743205566: Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

Edición Destacada

ISBN 10:  0743205561 ISBN 13:  9780743205566
Editorial: Simon & Schuster, 2002
Tapa dura

Los mejores resultados en AbeBooks

1.

Gigerenzer, Gerd
Publicado por Simon and Schuster 2003-03-01 (2003)
ISBN 10: 0743254236 ISBN 13: 9780743254236
Nuevo Paperback Cantidad disponible: 5
Librería
BookOutlet
(Thorold, ON, Canada)
Valoración
[?]

Descripción Simon and Schuster 2003-03-01, 2003. Paperback. Condición: New. Paperback. Publisher overstock, may contain remainder mark on edge. Nº de ref. del artículo: 9780743254236B

Más información sobre este vendedor | Contactar al vendedor

Comprar nuevo
EUR 6,13
Convertir moneda

Añadir al carrito

Gastos de envío: EUR 5,11
De Canada a Estados Unidos de America
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envío

2.

Director Gerd Gigerenzer
Publicado por SIMON SCHUSTER, United States (2003)
ISBN 10: 0743254236 ISBN 13: 9780743254236
Nuevo Paperback Cantidad disponible: 10
Impresión bajo demanda
Librería
The Book Depository
(London, Reino Unido)
Valoración
[?]

Descripción SIMON SCHUSTER, United States, 2003. Paperback. Condición: New. Language: English . Brand New Book ***** Print on Demand *****.At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven t learned statistical thinking, we don t understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don t understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives. Nº de ref. del artículo: AAV9780743254236

Más información sobre este vendedor | Contactar al vendedor

Comprar nuevo
EUR 16,35
Convertir moneda

Añadir al carrito

Gastos de envío: GRATIS
De Reino Unido a Estados Unidos de America
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envío

3.

Director Gerd Gigerenzer
Publicado por Simon and Schuster (2003)
ISBN 10: 0743254236 ISBN 13: 9780743254236
Nuevo Cantidad disponible: > 20
Impresión bajo demanda
Librería
Pbshop
(Wood Dale, IL, Estados Unidos de America)
Valoración
[?]

Descripción Simon and Schuster, 2003. PAP. Condición: New. New Book. Shipped from US within 10 to 14 business days. THIS BOOK IS PRINTED ON DEMAND. Established seller since 2000. Nº de ref. del artículo: IQ-9780743254236

Más información sobre este vendedor | Contactar al vendedor

Comprar nuevo
EUR 15,71
Convertir moneda

Añadir al carrito

Gastos de envío: EUR 3,40
A Estados Unidos de America
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envío

4.

Director Gerd Gigerenzer
Publicado por SIMON SCHUSTER, United States (2003)
ISBN 10: 0743254236 ISBN 13: 9780743254236
Nuevo Paperback Cantidad disponible: 10
Impresión bajo demanda
Librería
Book Depository International
(London, Reino Unido)
Valoración
[?]

Descripción SIMON SCHUSTER, United States, 2003. Paperback. Condición: New. Language: English . Brand New Book ***** Print on Demand *****. At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven t learned statistical thinking, we don t understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don t understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives. Nº de ref. del artículo: AAV9780743254236

Más información sobre este vendedor | Contactar al vendedor

Comprar nuevo
EUR 19,20
Convertir moneda

Añadir al carrito

Gastos de envío: GRATIS
De Reino Unido a Estados Unidos de America
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envío

5.

Gigerenzer, Gerd
Publicado por Simon & Schuster 3/19/2003 (2003)
ISBN 10: 0743254236 ISBN 13: 9780743254236
Nuevo Paperback or Softback Cantidad disponible: 10
Librería
BargainBookStores
(Grand Rapids, MI, Estados Unidos de America)
Valoración
[?]

Descripción Simon & Schuster 3/19/2003, 2003. Paperback or Softback. Condición: New. Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You. Book. Nº de ref. del artículo: BBS-9780743254236

Más información sobre este vendedor | Contactar al vendedor

Comprar nuevo
EUR 20,19
Convertir moneda

Añadir al carrito

Gastos de envío: GRATIS
A Estados Unidos de America
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envío

6.

Gigerenzer, Gerd
Publicado por Simon & Schuster (2018)
ISBN 10: 0743254236 ISBN 13: 9780743254236
Nuevo Paperback Cantidad disponible: 14
Impresión bajo demanda
Librería
Murray Media
(North Miami Beach, FL, Estados Unidos de America)
Valoración
[?]

Descripción Simon & Schuster, 2018. Paperback. Condición: New. Never used! This item is printed on demand. Nº de ref. del artículo: 0743254236

Más información sobre este vendedor | Contactar al vendedor

Comprar nuevo
EUR 20,68
Convertir moneda

Añadir al carrito

Gastos de envío: GRATIS
A Estados Unidos de America
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envío

7.

Gerd Gigerenzer
Publicado por Simon & Schuster (2003)
ISBN 10: 0743254236 ISBN 13: 9780743254236
Nuevo Tapa blanda Cantidad disponible: 1
Impresión bajo demanda
Librería
Valoración
[?]

Descripción Simon & Schuster, 2003. Condición: New. This item is printed on demand for shipment within 3 working days. Nº de ref. del artículo: GM9780743254236

Más información sobre este vendedor | Contactar al vendedor

Comprar nuevo
EUR 18,58
Convertir moneda

Añadir al carrito

Gastos de envío: EUR 2,75
De Alemania a Estados Unidos de America
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envío

8.

Gerd Gigerenzer
Publicado por Simon & Schuster
ISBN 10: 0743254236 ISBN 13: 9780743254236
Nuevo Paperback Cantidad disponible: > 20
Librería
BuySomeBooks
(Las Vegas, NV, Estados Unidos de America)
Valoración
[?]

Descripción Simon & Schuster. Paperback. Condición: New. 320 pages. Dimensions: 8.9in. x 6.0in. x 0.8in.At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we havent learned statistical thinking, we dont understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers dont understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and electioncampaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1, 000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1, 000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1, 000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives. This item ships from multiple locations. Your book may arrive from Roseburg,OR, La Vergne,TN. Paperback. Nº de ref. del artículo: 9780743254236

Más información sobre este vendedor | Contactar al vendedor

Comprar nuevo
EUR 23,00
Convertir moneda

Añadir al carrito

Gastos de envío: GRATIS
A Estados Unidos de America
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envío

9.

Gigerenzer, Gerd
Publicado por Simon and Schuster (2002)
ISBN 10: 0743254236 ISBN 13: 9780743254236
Nuevo Cantidad disponible: > 20
Impresión bajo demanda
Librería
Books2Anywhere
(Fairford, GLOS, Reino Unido)
Valoración
[?]

Descripción Simon and Schuster, 2002. PAP. Condición: New. New Book. Delivered from our UK warehouse in 4 to 14 business days. THIS BOOK IS PRINTED ON DEMAND. Established seller since 2000. Nº de ref. del artículo: LQ-9780743254236

Más información sobre este vendedor | Contactar al vendedor

Comprar nuevo
EUR 14,84
Convertir moneda

Añadir al carrito

Gastos de envío: EUR 10,08
De Reino Unido a Estados Unidos de America
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envío

10.

Director Gerd Gigerenzer
Publicado por SIMON SCHUSTER, United States (2003)
ISBN 10: 0743254236 ISBN 13: 9780743254236
Nuevo Paperback Cantidad disponible: 10
Librería
Book Depository hard to find
(London, Reino Unido)
Valoración
[?]

Descripción SIMON SCHUSTER, United States, 2003. Paperback. Condición: New. Language: English . This book usually ship within 10-15 business days and we will endeavor to dispatch orders quicker than this where possible. Brand New Book. At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven t learned statistical thinking, we don t understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don t understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives. Nº de ref. del artículo: LIE9780743254236

Más información sobre este vendedor | Contactar al vendedor

Comprar nuevo
EUR 25,30
Convertir moneda

Añadir al carrito

Gastos de envío: GRATIS
De Reino Unido a Estados Unidos de America
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envío

Existen otras copia(s) de este libro

Ver todos los resultados de su búsqueda