Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

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9780743254236: Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

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1.

GIGERENZER
Editorial: Simon and Schuster
ISBN 10: 0743254236 ISBN 13: 9780743254236
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Descripción Simon and Schuster. Estado de conservación: New. Brand New. Nº de ref. de la librería 0743254236

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Gigerenzer, Gerd
Editorial: Simon & Schuster 2002-06 (2002)
ISBN 10: 0743254236 ISBN 13: 9780743254236
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Descripción Simon & Schuster 2002-06, 2002. Estado de conservación: New. This item is printed on demand. Brand new book, sourced directly from publisher. Dispatch time is 24-48 hours from our warehouse. Book will be sent in robust, secure packaging to ensure it reaches you securely. Nº de ref. de la librería NU-LSI-06884718

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3.

Director Gerd Gigerenzer
Editorial: SIMON SCHUSTER, United States (2003)
ISBN 10: 0743254236 ISBN 13: 9780743254236
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Descripción SIMON SCHUSTER, United States, 2003. Paperback. Estado de conservación: New. 226 x 152 mm. Language: English . Brand New Book ***** Print on Demand *****. At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven t learned statistical thinking, we don t understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don t understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives. Nº de ref. de la librería AAV9780743254236

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Professor and Director Gerd Gigerenzer
Editorial: SIMON SCHUSTER, United States (2003)
ISBN 10: 0743254236 ISBN 13: 9780743254236
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Descripción SIMON SCHUSTER, United States, 2003. Paperback. Estado de conservación: New. 226 x 152 mm. Language: English . Brand New Book ***** Print on Demand *****.At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven t learned statistical thinking, we don t understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don t understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives. Nº de ref. de la librería AAV9780743254236

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Gigerenzer, Gerd
Editorial: Simon & Schuster (2016)
ISBN 10: 0743254236 ISBN 13: 9780743254236
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Descripción Simon & Schuster, 2016. Paperback. Estado de conservación: New. PRINT ON DEMAND Book; New; Publication Year 2016; Not Signed; Fast Shipping from the UK. No. book. Nº de ref. de la librería ria9780743254236_lsuk

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Gigerenzer, Gerd
Editorial: SIMON and SCHUSTER (2003)
ISBN 10: 0743254236 ISBN 13: 9780743254236
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Descripción SIMON and SCHUSTER, 2003. PAP. Estado de conservación: New. New Book. Shipped from US within 10 to 14 business days. THIS BOOK IS PRINTED ON DEMAND. Established seller since 2000. Nº de ref. de la librería IQ-9780743254236

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Gigerenzer, Gerd
ISBN 10: 0743254236 ISBN 13: 9780743254236
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Descripción Paperback. Estado de conservación: New. This item is printed on demand. Item doesn't include CD/DVD. Nº de ref. de la librería 1689073

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Gigerenzer, Gerd
Editorial: Simon & Schuster (2017)
ISBN 10: 0743254236 ISBN 13: 9780743254236
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Descripción Simon & Schuster, 2017. Paperback. Estado de conservación: New. This item is printed on demand. Nº de ref. de la librería 0743254236

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Gigerenzer, Gerd
Editorial: SIMON and SCHUSTER (2002)
ISBN 10: 0743254236 ISBN 13: 9780743254236
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Descripción SIMON and SCHUSTER, 2002. PAP. Estado de conservación: New. New Book. Delivered from our UK warehouse in 3 to 5 business days. THIS BOOK IS PRINTED ON DEMAND. Established seller since 2000. Nº de ref. de la librería LQ-9780743254236

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Gerd Gigerenzer
Editorial: Simon & Schuster
ISBN 10: 0743254236 ISBN 13: 9780743254236
Nuevos Paperback Cantidad: 20
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Descripción Simon & Schuster. Paperback. Estado de conservación: New. Paperback. 320 pages. Dimensions: 8.9in. x 6.0in. x 0.8in.At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we havent learned statistical thinking, we dont understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers dont understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and electioncampaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1, 000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1, 000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1, 000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives. This item ships from multiple locations. Your book may arrive from Roseburg,OR, La Vergne,TN. Paperback. Nº de ref. de la librería 9780743254236

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