This book provides a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis of the methodology for assessing and managing risks. Based on well-developed lectures given for many years at the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis and written by both an academic and a practitioner in this rapidly evolving field, it contains clear explanations, excellent examples, and duality figures and tables...The best yet on this topic.--S. A. Batterman"Choice" (04/01/2002)From the Publisher:
Over the centuries, mankind has slowly reduced the risks and hazards that even as recently as a century ago kept life expectancy to a mere 45 years. Our average life span has improved to 77 years by remarkable progress in public health and safety. But with this improvement has come a demand for greater efforts to improve both life expectancy and the quality of life. The first edition of this book, published in 1982, was a pioneer in the development of logical, yet simple, analytic tools for discussion of the risks which we all face. This new edition, revised, expanded, and illustrated in detail, should be of value both to professionals in the field and to those who wish to understand these vital issues.
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Descripción Harvard School of Public Health, 2001. Estado de conservación: New. Brand New, Unread Copy in Perfect Condition. A+ Customer Service! Summary: Preface 1. Introduction: Perspective on Risk Perception is Crucial Definition of Risk Risk Changes as Events Unfold Measures of Risk Different Measures Can Lead to Different Decisions Absolute or Incremental Risk Defining the System Boundary Layout of the Book 2. Methods of Risk Calculation and Estimation Evaluation of "Historical" Risks "New" Risks: (1) Factorization of an Engineering System with an Event Tree "New" Risks: (2) of Epidemiology and Its Ambiguities Risks of Doses Less than Background: The "Linear Default" Beneficial Effects and Hormesis New Risks: (3) The Use of Animal Data to Estimate Risks to Humans Probability of Causation Elicitation of Expert Opinion Exposure and Dose Estimation The Risk of a System--the Impact Pathway Approach Risk of the Impossible Large and Immeasurable Risks The Chimera of Zero Risk--Predictable but Irrelevant 3. Uncertainty and Variability Risk Implies Uncertainty Different Types of Uncertainty As Risk Changes with Time, So Does Uncertainty Stochastic Uncertainties Variability vs. Uncertainty Uncertainty vs. Error Independence of Uncertainties Uncertainty in Cancer Risk Assessment Monte Carlo Models Model Uncertainty Uncertainty in Expert Elicitation Overconfidence in Uncertainty Estimates 4. Perception of Risks Tversky's Analyses Other Attributes and Dimensions Managers and Decision Makers Consider Public Perception Comparing Risks (Risk-Risk Comparisons) Comparing Risks for the Same Benefit (Cost Effectiveness) Expression of Risks Public Misconceptions Common Public Misconceptions Recipe for Communication 5. Formal Comparison of Risk and Benefit Distributional Inequity Deriving Suitable Value Functions Choice of Discounting Rates Approximations and Simplified Schemes 6. Risk Management: Managing and Reducing Risks We Calculate Risks in Order to Reduce Them Schemes for Analyzing Risk Management Options Criteria for Risk Management The Ban or Taboo Best Available Control Technology Risk-Cost-Benefit Analysis The Precautionary Principle Regulation on Upper Limit of Risk Risk versus Certainty of Information The "De Minimis" Risk Risk-related Decisions of the U.S. EPA Probability of Causation Management by Avoiding Precursors Asbestos and Dioxin Reducing Risk by Technological Improvement Radiation Protection Economic Incentives The Multiple Uses of a Risk Assessment Use of Comparisons to Guide a Manager Safety Culture and the Importance of Incentives Congress as the Filter for Societal Values The Dual Role of the Courts 7. Lists of Risks Some Examples of Risk Calculations The Risk (of Death) in Living Life Expectancy A Selection of Risks: Historically Calculated Time (or Action) to Reach One in a Million Risk Loss of Life Expectancy (LOLE) A Partial List of Catastrophes Amounts Paid to Avert Deaths Variation and Uncertainties Detailed Discussions of Some Risks 8. Bibliography Books Journals Websites Specific References Appendix 1: Some Famous Quotations Appendix 2: Application of EPA's Hazardous Waste Identification Rule 1. Variability 2. Uncertainty 3. Legislative Mandate and its Interpretation 4. Precise Definitions Appendix 3: Procedure Used for Age Adjustment by NCHS Appendix 4: Are Mushrooms Safe to Eat, or Should They Be Considered Toxic Waste? The Problem Materials and Methods Results Implications Modifying Comments Appendix 5: Evaluating the Lung-Cancer Risks Due to Smoking, Exposure to Asbestos, and Their Combination Smoking Asbestos Assigning Causation of Lung Cancer to Smoking and Asbestos--the Logic of the Approach Interaction between Smoking and Cigarettes Epilog Index. Nº de ref. de la librería ABE_book_new_0674005295
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