Descripción
534, [2] pages. Illustrations. Notes. Index. Some ink underlining and yellow highlighting noted. DJ has slight wear and soiling. The Signal and the Noise : Why Most Predictions Fail - but Some Don't (alternatively stylized as The Signal and the Noise : Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't) is a 2012 book by Nate Silver detailing the art of using probability and statistics as applied to real-world circumstances. The book includes richly detailed case studies from baseball, elections, climate change, the financial crash, poker, and weather forecasting. The book emphasizes Silver's skill, which is the practical art of mathematical model building using probability and statistics. Silver takes a big-picture approach to using statistical tools, combining sources of unique data (e.g., timing a minor league ball player's fastball using a radar gun), with historical data and principles of sound statistical analysis. The book includes richly detailed case studies from baseball, elections, climate change, the financial crash, poker, and weather forecasting. These different topics illustrate different statistical principles. There is much on the need for improved expressions of uncertainty in all statistical statements, reflecting ranges of probable outcomes and not just single "point estimates" like averages. Silver rejects much ideology taught with statistical method in colleges and universities today. The problem Silver finds is a belief in perfect experimental, survey, or other designs, when data often comes from a variety of sources and idealized modeling assumptions rarely hold true. Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics) and elections (see psephology). He is the editor-in-chief of ESPN's FiveThirtyEight and a Special Correspondent for ABC News. Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA, a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009. After Silver successfully called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009. In 2010, the FiveThirtyEight blog was licensed for publication by The New York Times. In 2012 and 2013, FiveThirtyEight won Webby Awards as the "Best Political Blog" from the International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences. In the 2012 United States presidential election, Silver correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.In July 2013, FiveThirtyEight was sold to ESPN, and Silver became its Editor in Chief. The ESPN-owned FiveThirtyEight launched on March 17, 2014. The site focused on a broad range of subjects under the rubric of "data journalism". Silver's book, The Signal and the Noise, was published in September 2012. It subsequently reached The New York Times best seller list for nonfiction, and was named by Amazon as the No. 1 best nonfiction book of 2012. The Signal and the Noise won the 2013 Phi Beta Kappa Award in Science. The book has been translated into nine languages: Chinese (separate editions in traditional and simplified characters), Czech, German, Italian, Polish, Portuguese, Spanish, Russian, and Romanian. Having earned a bachelor's degree from The University of Chicago in 2000, Silver has since been awarded four honorary doctoral degrees: from Ripon College (2013), The New School (2013), The University of Leuven (2013), and Amherst College (2014). Special Edition as University of Maryland First Year Book 2013-14. First printing [stated].
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