9780282340520 - Research Program on the Management of Science and Technology: The Delphi Technique, Survey and Comment (Classic Reprint) de Fusfeld, Alan R. (3 resultados)

PAP. Condición: New. New Book. Shipped from UK. Established seller since 2000.

PAP. Condición: New. New Book. Shipped from UK. Established seller since 2000.

Paperback. Condición: New. Print on Demand. This book delves into the fascinating world of Delphi forecasting, a technique for systematically gathering expert opinions to predict future events. Tracing its origins back to the RAND Corporation in the 1950s, the author explores how Delphi has evolved from its initial focus on military strategy to encompass diverse fields like medicine, education, and space exploration. Through real-world case studies, the book examines how organizations like LTV and Goodyear have utilized Delphi to inform their long-term planning. It also delves into the theoretical underpinnings of the methodology, analyzing the validity of its predictions and comparing its accuracy to other forecasting methods. Readers will gain valuable insights into the strengths and limitations of Delphi, including its reliance on expert judgment and the potential for bias. The author poses thought-provoking questions about the psychological factors that may influence forecasters and the inherent uncertainty of predicting the future. Ultimately, this book provides a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of Delphi forecasting, empowering readers to critically evaluate its potential and determine its applicability to their own endeavors. This book is a reproduction of an important historical work, digitally reconstructed using state-of-the-art technology to preserve the original format. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in the book. print-on-demand item.