TRANSITION TO PEACE

iUniverse

Contents

Acknowledgments......................................................xviiIntroduction.........................................................xix1. REFLECTIONS ON WAR................................................1Major American Wars..................................................1US Military Bases....................................................2Astronomical Cost....................................................4A Changing Battlefield...............................................62. A RAPIDLY CHANGING WORLD..........................................9Overpopulation.......................................................9Peak Oil.............................................................11Climate Change.......................................................14Economic Instability.................................................16Where We're Stuck....................................................213. MODELS FOR CHANGE.................................................25Nonviolence..........................................................25Peaceful Warriorship.................................................30Permaculture.........................................................364. PEACE PRINCIPLES..................................................41of the Entire World..................................................42Our Adversaries......................................................42Physical Force.......................................................425. PEACE PROGRAMS....................................................45Create a Department of Peace.........................................45Conduct a Global Marshall Plan.......................................47Create a Peace Force.................................................49End Military Invasions and Occupations...............................53Close, Convert, or Donate Foreign Military Bases.....................54Phase Out Nuclear Weapons............................................56Stop Arming the World................................................58Reduce Defense Spending..............................................58Convert the Defense Industry.........................................606. FORCES FOR CHANGE.................................................65Citizen Action.......................................................65New Business Models..................................................67Localization.........................................................71Role of Gender.......................................................747. TIMING OF CHANGE..................................................77Phases of Change.....................................................77Possible Change Paths................................................80The Great Turning....................................................80Rate of Change.......................................................82Obstacles to Overcome................................................82Selling Peace........................................................868. OUR CHALLENGE.....................................................89Redefine Success and Happiness.......................................89Develop Community....................................................91Serve Others.........................................................92Visualize Peace......................................................92Follow Your Passion..................................................949. STIRRING THE EMBERS...............................................95Reasons for Optimism.................................................95Takeaway Message.....................................................96AFTERWORD............................................................101ABOUT THE AUTHOR.....................................................103SELECTED REFERENCES..................................................105BUMPER STICKERS FOR WAR..............................................112BUMPER STICKERS FOR PEACE............................................113

Chapter One

If you wish for peace, understand war. —Sir Basil Liddell Hart, military historian

There are many things to be said about war: its glory and horrors, its causes and effects, and whether there is such a thing as a "just war." Of all the aspects of war, I'm not going to address the most obvious ones. Rather, I want to focus on just a few points that struck me the most in my research and that seem most relevant to this discussion.

Major American Wars

For centuries, nations have used war as their primary tool to provide for security and common defense. The United States is no exception, having participated in our share of conflict, perhaps more than we realize. Since our founding, we have engaged in fourteen major wars, an average of one every seventeen years as shown in Figures 1 & 2. This does not include sixty-five smaller incursions such as the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion, the 1989 invasion of Panama, the 1995 intervention in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and ongoing Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) covert operations from 1947 to the present. No political party has had a corner on the war market. Of all the presidencies in our country's history, major wars have been fought under both Democratic administrations (sixteen) and Republican (fifteen).

Sometimes as a nation, we felt war was justified (World War II), in some cases we concluded that the war was a mistake (Vietnam), and sometimes our involvement was highly questionable (Iraq). There were even times when we weren't sure why we were there (World War I). Regardless, war has been a steady part of the American experience.

US Military Bases

We have a large network of military bases at home and abroad— about 500 domestic and around 1,000 foreign bases. They range from small outposts to bustling military cities. As an example of how big our foreign bases can be, the Victory Base Complex in Baghdad housed more than 100,000 military personnel and contractors during the Iraq War.

Few other countries have any foreign military bases. Even China, with the world's second largest military budget, has no foreign bases, although it may be forced to change its policy by the ramping up of US bases in the Asia-Pacific region. No foreign country, of course, has any military bases on American soil.

In the Mideast, where two thirds of the world's oil reserves are located, we have twenty-six strategically located air bases as shown in Figure 3. While they are there to ensure our access to oil, their presence creates an interesting dynamic. Consider the situation of Iran. It is surrounded by US bases on all sides and by Afghanistan on its east and Iraq on its west, countries we invaded in 2001 and 2003, respectively. It's the equivalent of Iran surrounding the United States with twenty-six of their military bases, then invading Canada and Mexico. Is it a surprise that they want to develop a nuclear weapon?

Our military is now shifting its focus from the Mideast to Asia and the Pacific, where China is perceived as a major economic threat. Trade officials from the United States and eight Pacific Rim nations are negotiating a new Trans-Pacific Free Trade Agreement that would "facilitate a favorable and sustainable business environment" in the region. In support of its economic interests, the United States is strengthening its military presence there. We currently have military bases in Guam, Japan, South Korea, Australia, eight other South Pacific islands, and five of the seven islands of Hawaii. New permanent bases and facilities are under construction in Darwin, Australia; on the main island of Hawaii; and on Jeju Island, South Korea. The $1 billion naval facility on Jeju would base submarines and an Aegis ballistic missile defense system, serving as a forward operating base in the event of military conflict with China.

Astronomical Cost

War is expensive. Although devilishly difficult to decipher, the total national security budget for 2012 can be calculated in the following way. The total proposed federal budget was $3.7 trillion. Of that, $1.6 trillion was for the mandatory programs of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, leaving a balance of $2.1 trillion for discretionary spending. Of that remaining balance, $1.3 trillion was national security spending, which is much greater than just the base budget for DOD, once you add in all other related costs as shown in Figure 4.

The $1.3 trillion for national security spending represents 62 percent of totaldiscretionaryspending as shown in Figure 5. For those who believe that the primary function of the federal government should be defense, this looks pretty good. For those who believe that government has a wider responsibility, national security takes up a disproportionate share of the budget.

Another way of looking at our defense budget is to compare it to what is spent by other countries. Figure 6 shows that the US military budget exceeds that of all the other world's military expenditures combined.

A Changing Battlefield

Modern terrorism has confounded our traditional ways of fighting war. The new battlefield is no longer uniformed armies fighting over territory, where more soldiers and better weapons lead to victory. Terrorism is leading the way to what's called asymmetric warfare, where a very small organization such as al Qaeda can inflict great damage on a very large nation such as ours.

Here at home, the best Star Wars missile defense system could not have stopped the attacks of 9/11. If there is another 9/11-type attack, it will be difficult for our military to respond. We have virtually destroyed all the physical assets of al Qaeda, and its cells are spread throughout the world, not in any one location. When we invade foreign countries, insurgents strike and blend into the surrounding population, frustrating our attempt to avoid civilian casualties. It ends up being a constant game of cat and mouse that is very difficult for us to "win." New ways of defending our country need to be developed.

Apart from the taking of lives, terrorists are successfully waging an economic war against us. Al Qaeda's $500,000 attack of 9/11 triggered two wars and a homeland security program costing on the order of $5 trillion when everything is added up. And once we spend tons of money to increase airline and port security, terrorists can easily adopt another form of attack, forcing us to spend even more in a never-ending cycle of response. By hijacking our own planes and using inexpensive weapons like box cutters, shoe bombs, and exploding print cartridges, terrorists are economically bleeding us to death. As someone said, "We have a global nuclear navy. Al Qaeda doesn't even have a rowboat."

Chapter Two

Predictions are always difficult, especially about the future. —Niels Bohr, quantum physicist

The world is changing so rapidly we will hardly recognize it in twenty years. Given the world's exploding population, the impending end of cheap oil, and the effects of climate change, we are hitting limits in the Earth's carrying capacity. And our national and global economic systems are fragile and subject to breakdown. These factors have huge implications for the future mission, structure, and operation of our military system.

Overpopulation

The world's population has grown at an alarming rate over the last hundred years, soaring from 1.6 billion in 1900 to the current figure of 7 billion, with the graph shooting up exponentially, in the shape of a hockey stick, as shown in Figure. 7. The United Nations predicts that population will continue to increase rapidly, reaching a peak of 9.8 billion in 2050, less than forty years from now, assuming there is no population collapse.

If there is population collapse, it could occur in one of two ways. In the first, population implodes from world famine, thermonuclear war, or some natural disaster; clearly, an option we don't want. The second way would involve a proactive effort on the part of all nations to set a goal and implement policies to reduce population size, an action that is not likely to happen.

Accompanying population growth will be increased consumption, particularly in rich countries. There is the oft-quoted statistic that the US, with 5 percent of the world's population, consumes about 25 percent of the world's resources. The growth of both population and consumption, particularly if the rest of the world attempts to achieve the US standard of living, will continue to put unprecedented pressure on the ability of the Earth to provide for our needs and absorb our wastes. Dr. Paul Erlich, professor of Population Studies at Stanford University, estimates that at the current rate of growth and consumption, total societal collapse from population pressure could occur in the next thirty to forty years (Humanity on a Tightrope by Paul Erlich and Robert Ornstein).

Overpopulation will create an uncertain future, in effect tossing the pieces on the chessboard into the air. As a result, our military will have to adjust and operate in a very different environment from the past.

Peak Oil

The term "peak oil" means that global oil production (extraction and refining) has reached a peak and will steadily and permanently decline in the future, until it is no longer an economically viable source of energy as shown in Figure 8. Since the first commercial oil well was drilled in Poland in 1853, oil production has increased annually, with a blip on the upswing during the 1970s Arab oil embargo. There is some disagreement as to when we hit the peak, with estimates ranging from 1990 to 2020. The International Energy Administration (IEA) says production of conventional crude oil peaked in 2006. Regardless of the exact date, we are basically at peak oil now, meaning that oil in the future will be decreasing in availability and dramatically increasing in price.

As stated by Michael Brownlee in "From Fossil Fuel Dependence to Local Resilience, One Community at a Time" (March 23, 2010, Transition Colorado):

There are now 98 oil producing nations in the world. Sixty-four of them have already reached their peak in oil production and are in decline. That is fundamentally why oil prices have been rising so dramatically. All the low-hanging fruit has already been picked. The rest is lower quality, requires more processing, and is mostly available in very harsh environments—several miles under the bottom of the ocean, in the tar sands of the fragile Canadian tundra, or in countries not particularly friendly to the West.

At the same time, worldwide demand for oil, especially in the growing economies of China, India, and Brazil, is rapidly increasing, with the United States leading all others in per capita consumption. The net result is that we are going to run out of commercially available cheap oil, perhaps within the next forty or fifty years. We don't accept it yet, but the Oil Age will soon be over. This is vividly illustrated by the Petroleum Interval curve as shown in Figure 8, in which the Oil Age can be seen as a brief 200-year period in the Earth's history.

It is true that there are ways to compensate for declining oil supplies, such as using substitute energy sources, increasing efficiency, and developing new innovative technologies. The problem is that no foreseeable alternatives are practical, affordable, or likely to be developed in time to replace oil. Substitutes may have their own "peaking" problems and constraints on how they can be applied. Increasing efficiency has a "rebound effect" where efficiency makes energy cheaper, which increases demand.

Peak oil will have a number of direct consequences on society at large:

• Increasing demand for oil and declining supplies will· cause the price of oil to rise, which will stunt continued economic growth.

• Communities will have to relocalize their economies.

• Globalization will decline as oil becomes less available for transporting people, agricultural produce, and manufactured goods.

• Automobile ownership and travel will decline, affecting the auto industry and subsidiary businesses.

• Companies like Wal-mart will have to significantly change their business models as the transportation cost for goods from low-wage countries becomes increasingly prohibitive.

• Resource wars will break out as countries go after the last drop of oil. As stated by ex-Special Forces Stan Goff, "If the principle export of Iraq were palm dates, we wouldn't be there."

The implications for the military will be especially profound. The US military is the world's largest single consumer of energy and can't function in its traditional way without huge supplies of oil. As a result, the Pentagon is actively planning to "get off oil" as soon as possible.

Christine Parthemore, a fellow at the Center for New American Security, has coauthored a report recommending that the "DOD should ensure that it can operate all of its systems on nonpetroleum fuels by 2040." Navy Secretary Ray Malbus has promised that the Navy will be 50 percent oil-free by 2020, using a mix of solar, wind, geothermal, biofuels, and nuclear power. The Air Force and Navy are developing biofuels made from algae for their aircraft, vehicles, ships, and generators. And the Army is pursuing an aggressive "net zero" program for its permanent bases worldwide, so that the net production and consumption of energy, water, and waste will be zero.

However, there is a question as to how fast and how completely the technological conversions will actually occur. If there isn't enough fuel to power weapon systems or to transport personnel and equipment to the far corners of the Earth, the Pentagon will be forced to reexamine its operations. It could shift from conventional warfare and rely more on highly secret and less expensive Special Operations Forces, such as the Navy Seals. Or we could move toward a national security policy that relies more on diplomacy and "soft power" and less on military interventions. Regardless, peak oil is just one of many factors that will require our defense posture to significantly change in the future.

Climate Change

Climate change refers to a shift in global weather patterns, measured by yardsticks such as the Earth's surface temperature, wind and rainfall patterns, and the frequency of extreme weather events. The term is commonly used interchangeably with "global warming" and "the greenhouse effect," but climate change is a more accurate phrase. A major contributor and good indicator of climate change is the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂). As the level of CO₂ rises, the Earth's temperature increases, causing more water to evaporate from the oceans and the land to lose water more quickly to the sky. These changes alter the dynamics of meteorological activity.

For millions of years, the levels of atmospheric CO₂ fluctuated between 180 and 280 parts per million (ppm). Then in the 1800s, CO₂ levels began to increase exponentially from around 250 ppm to over 390 ppm today as shown in Figure 9. Generally, 350 ppm is considered the safe limit to avoid irreversible, runaway climate change occurring in vicious feedback loops. The effects of climate change may represent the greatest threat ever to human civilization, including rising sea levels caused by melting ice sheets, loss of fisheries due to ocean acidification, greater frequency and magnitude of hurricanes and other severe weather events, increases in floods and droughts resulting in crop failures, and thawing permafrost, which will release methane into the atmosphere (methane is many times more potent a greenhouse gas than CO₂).

To take one example, if sea levels rise four feet by 2100 (predicted by Rahmstorf, 2007, and Pfeffer, 2008), coastal cities around the world (London, Shanghai, Cairo, Miami, New Orleans) will be underwater and uninhabitable, creating millions of climate refugees. Two real estate markets will emerge, one in coastal areas where values plummet and the other in interior areas where prices soar. Our military is well aware of the risks, with 153 US Naval installations vulnerable to sea level rise.

There is overwhelming evidence that manmade greenhouse gasses are the major contributor to the CO₂ increase. Scientists have stated that bringing climate change under control will require that CO₂ levels level off by 2020, then decline sharply to 350 ppm. In order to achieve this goal, an ambitious plan needs to be in place by 2012. Required actions include reducing CO₂ emissions from twenty to two pounds per capita per day, no minor task. Climate change is no longer just an issue for the future. It's happening now.

Someone has said that if climate were a bank, we would have already fixed it. However, climate is not a bank, and given the inability of governments to address the problem, it is unlikely that corrective action will be taken in time. This is one more example of how our future will be very different from the past, causing our military to function in a very different world.

(Continues...)

Excerpted from TRANSITION TO PEACEby Russell Faure-Brac Copyright © 2012 by Russell Faure-Brac. Excerpted by permission of iUniverse. All rights reserved. No part of this excerpt may be reproduced or reprinted without permission in writing from the publisher.
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