Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson turn a lifetime of expertise into formalizing, adapting, and standardizing a set of 50 of the most robust analytic techniques in use in intelligence analysis today. This ready reference showcases current and cutting-edge best practices and represents a significant leap forward in depth, detail and utility from existing handbooks.

Logically organized and richly illustrated, Structured Analytic Techniques makes it easy to navigate, reference, and put the tools to use right away. Each technique is clearly and systematically explained: when to use, value added, the method, potential pitfalls, examples of how it can be used, its relationship to other techniques, and its origins.

THE TECHNIQUES

• Getting Started Checklist

• Customer Checklist

• Issue Redefinition

• Chronologies and Timelines

• Sorting

• Ranking, Scoring, Prioritizing

• Matrices

• Network Analysis

• Mind Maps and Concept Maps

• Process Maps and Gantt Charts

• Structured Brainstorming

• Virtual Brainstorming

• Nominal Group Technique

• Starbursting

• Cross-Impact Matrix

• Morphological Analysis

• Quadrant Crunching

• Basic Scenario Analysis

• Alternative Futures Analysis

• Multiple Scenario Generation

• Indicators

• Indicators Validator

• Simple Hypothesis

• Multiple Hypotheses Generator

• Quadrant Hypothesis Generation

• Diagnostic Reasoning

• Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

• Argument Mapping

• Deception Detection

• Key Assumptions Check

• Structured Analogies

• Role Playing

• Red Hat Analysis

• Outside-In Thinking

• Policy Outcomes Forecasting Model

• Prediction Markets

• Premortem Analysis

• Structured Self-Critique

• What If? Analysis

• High Impact/Low Probability Analysis

• Devil′s Advocacy

• Red Team Analysis

• Delphi Method

• Adversarial Collaboration

• Structured Debate

• Complexity Manager

• Decision Matrix

• Force Field Analysis

• Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes

• SWOT Analysis

Randolph H. Pherson is president of Pherson Associates, LLC; CEO of Globalytica, LLC; and a founding director of the nonprofit Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence. He teaches advanced analytic techniques and critical thinking skills to analysts in the government and private sector. Mr. Pherson collaborated with Richards Heuer Jr. in developing and launching use of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, and he developed several analytic techniques for the CIA’s Sherman Kent School, many of which were incorporated in his Handbook of Analytic Tools and Techniques. He coauthored Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence with Katherine Hibbs Pherson, Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action with Sarah Miller Beebe, and several other guides for analysts on writing, briefing, indicators, and managing the production process. Mr. Pherson completed a twenty-eight-year career in the Intelligence Community in 2000, last serving as National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Latin America. Previously at the CIA, Mr. Pherson managed the production of intelligence analysis on topics ranging from global instability to Latin America, served on the Inspector General’s staff, and was chief of the CIA’s Strategic Planning and Management Staff. He is the recipient of the Distinguished Intelligence Medal for his service as NIO and the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal. Mr. Pherson received his B.A. from Dartmouth College and an M.A. in international relations from Yale University.

Richards J. Heuer Jr. is best known for his book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis and for developing and then guiding automation of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique. Both are being used to teach and train intelligence analysts throughout the Intelligence Community and in a growing number of academic programs on intelligence or national security. After retiring from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Mr. Heuer was associated with the Intelligence Community in various roles for more than five decades until his death in August 2018. He has written extensively on personnel security, counterintelligence, deception, and intelligence analysis. Mr. Heuer has a B.A. in philosophy from Williams College and an M.A. in international relations from the University of Southern California. He also pursued graduate studies at the University of California at Berkeley and the University of Michigan.