T�tulo: On Market Timing and Investment, Performance Part II Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills Classic Reprint
Editor: Forgotten Books
Fecha de publicaci�n: 2019
Idioma: Ingl�s
ISBN 10: 1332273106
ISBN 13: 9781332273102
Encuadernaci�n: PAP
Estado: New
Peso: 130 gramos

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Sinopsis

Excerpt from On Market Timing and Investment, Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills

In Part I, one of usl/ developed a basic model of market timing forecasts where the forecaster predicts when stocks will outperform bonds and when bonds will outperform stocks but he does not predict the magnitude of the superior performance. In that analysis, it was shown that the pattern of returns from successful market timing has an isomorphic correspondence to the pattern of returns from following certain option investment strategies where the implicit prices paid for the options are less than their fair or market values. This isomorphic correspondence was used to derive an equilibrium theory of value for market timing forecasting skills. By analyzing how investors would use the market timer's forecast to modify their probability beliefs about stock returns, it was shown that the conditional probabilities of a correct forecast (conditional on the return on the market) provide both necessary and sufficient conditions for such forecasts to have a positive value.

In the analysis presented here, we use the basic model of market timing derived in Part I to develop both parametric and nonparametric statistical procedures to test for superior forecasting skills.

About the Publisher

Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com

This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.

Rese�a del editor

Excerpt from On Market Timing and Investment, Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills

I. Introduction

In Part I, one of us developed a basic model of market timing forecasts where the forecaster predicts when stocks will outperform bonds and when bonds will outperform stocks but he does not predict the magnitude of the superior performance. In that analysis, it was shown that the pattern of returns from successful market timing has an isomorphic correspondence to the pattern of returns from following certain option investment strategies where the implicit prices paid for the options are less than their "fair" or market values. This isomorphic correspondence was used to derive an equilibrium theory of value for market timing forecasting skills. By analyzing how investors would use the market timer's forecast to modify their probability beliefs about stock returns, it has shown that the conditional probabilities of a correct forecast (conditional on the return on the market) provide both necessary and sufficient conditions for such forecasts to have a positive value.

In the analysis presented here, we use the basic model of market timing derived in Part I to develop both parametric and nonparametric statistical procedures to test for superior forecasting skills.

The evaluation of the performance of investment managers is a topic of considerable interest to both practitioners and academics.

About the Publisher

Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com

This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.

"Sobre este t�tulo" puede pertenecer a otra edici�n de este libro.

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