Intelligent Analysis: How to Defeat Uncertainty in High-Stakes Decisions

Making good decisions involving high stakes and uncertainty requires a significantly different mindset from an organization’s default decision-making process, which is typically dictated by culture, hierarchy, personalities, data, and haste. The methods described in this book, honed over decades by the US Intelligence Services, emphasize discipline, objectivity, diversity, reason, and transparency. Most importantly, they don’t interfere with the way your organization makes its high-stakes decisions. Instead, they add a protective layer of analytics that either validates a good decision, or exposes the flaws which could lead to catastrophic consequences. Regardless of your organization’s risk tolerance, these methods will show you where a high-stakes decision you have to make lies on the uncertainty spectrum and what, if any, actions you can take to nudge the needle to the left.

Endorsements:

“In the 20-plus years that I worked with Jay at CIA I knew him as both a highly regarded analyst & trainer of analysts. In this book, Jay combines that expertise with Steve’s to give senior executives in the private sector a new and powerful approach to identifying & managing risks that can undermine corporate outcomes. At the same time, the book offers private-sector analysts a step-by-step approach to producing assessments that support near- and longer term strategic goals.”
—Michael Morell, Former Acting and Deputy Director, CIA

“For over a decade at the Central Intelligence Agency, Jay Grusin & I worked on some of the toughest analytic challenges the Nation faced in Latin American & Asia. The techniques we used to manage risk, test assumptions, & deal with conflicting, incomplete, & sometimes inaccurate data—all presented in this readable book—are directly applicable to the business world. There is theory & then there is practice. Theory is cheap; the “how to” is priceless. This is the “how to.”
—Marty Petersen, Former Deputy Executive Director of the CIA and Founder, Sherman Kent School of Intelligence Analysis

“The analytical process described in Jay and Steve’s book has been thoroughly field-tested in the intelligence space & adapted in a both creative & practical manner to the business context. Organizations who adopt these principles & methods are building a crucial competence for survival and success in today’s uncertain times.”
—Leo M. Tilman, Author of Agility and Financial Darwinism and Founder/CEO, Tilman & Company

“In this book, Jay & Steve lay out structured analytic techniques, which have been honed in the Intelligence Community, that can be used by business leaders to make better executive decisions, & by everyone to improve their personal choices.”
—Dr. Ray O. Johnson, Former SVP and Chief Technology Officer, Lockheed Martin Corporation.

“This book is a must read for any executive, management consultant, or business school professor seeking to improve high-stakes decision making. The authors hone techniques used by the intelligence community to minimize emotion & bias in decision making by setting up a framework that focuses on analytics.”
—Dennis Cuneo, SVP (retired), Toyota

“Intelligent Analysis provides practical tools & proven techniques to produce objective, evidence-based analysis. It is a much needed “how to guide” for critical thinking to support decision making under uncertainty.”
—Roger Chen, Head of Enterprise Risk Analytics and Reporting, New York Life

“Organizations that struggle to establish a balanced decision-making process that is rigorous, agile, & collaborative, will find the disciplined & field-tested methods described in Jay’s and Steve’s book to be a powerful resource.”
—Angela Patel, ERM Program Leader, Amazon Web Services