Ignition Probabilities of Wildland Fuels Based on Simulated Lightning Discharges (Classic Reprint)

Excerpt from Ignition Probabilities of Wildland Fuels Based on Simulated Lightning Discharges

Fine fuel samples from Northwestern forest areas were subjected to an electric arc discharge that simulated the lightning continuing current. The important fuel state para meters and the ignition probabilities were determined using logistic regression.

The ignition probabilities for duff from short-needled coni fer species were found to depend almost entirely on the depth of the fuel bed. In the case of litter and duff from long needled species, ignition probabilities depend mostly on the ovendry fuel moisture.

Ignition probabilities also depend on the duration of the are only, with current flow and diameter having no detectable effect. Because the continuing current durations can be fit well by a Weibull distribution for both positive and negative discharges to ground, the probabilities conditional on the current duration can be converted to marginal probabilities per discharge. The necessary integrations were done and the results are presented.

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