Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway

Dan Gardner

741 valoraciones de Goodreads

Idioma: inglés

Editorial: Emblem Editions, 2011

0771035136 / 9780771035135

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Librería: World of Books (was SecondSale), Montgomery, IL, Estados Unidos de AmericaWorld of Books (was SecondSale)

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Descripción del artículo del vendedor

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future -- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate -- and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.…

N° de ref. del artículo 00098829952

Título
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway
Autor
Dan Gardner
Editorial
Emblem Editions
Año de publicación
2011
Estado
Very Good
Encuadernación
Paperback
Idioma
inglés
ISBN 10
0771035136
ISBN 13
9780771035135

World of Books (was SecondSale)

Montgomery, IL, Estados Unidos de America

Vendedor de 5 estrellas

Vendedor de IberLibro desde 20 de diciembre de 2007

Tarifas de envío en Estados Unidos de America

ArtículoDe 4 a 12 días hábilesDe 3 a 6 días hábiles
Primer artículoEUR 0,00EUR 9,78
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Founded in 2002, World of Books is a leading online destination for buying and selling both preloved and new books, committed to making sustainable reading accessible to all. With a mission to help people read more and waste less, World of Books offers a huge range of affordable, high-quality books — giving both new and preloved titles a second life. The company also operates World of Books – Sell Your Books, an easy-to-use platform that allows customers to trade in unwanted books for cash, helping to keep books in circulation while promoting sustainability. As a Certified B Corp, World of Books is driven by a vision to become the world’s largest and most sustainable dedicated online bookstore. The company measures its success through the positive environmental impact it creates, the value it provides to customers, and its ability to operate profitably while supporting its sustainable mission …

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SBYB, Inc.

900 Knell Rd
Montgomery, IL Estados Unidos de America 60538