In this guide, Keith Meinelt clearly describes the techniques he used to win all of his fantasy basketball leagues during the 2008-09 NBA season. Keith begins with basic discussions about league participation. Next he walks us through his draft preparations as he prepares us for opening day. During his discussion of locating valuable free agents in our fantasy leagues, he provides a fine analysis of a cutting edge website. Keith also offers us his unique spreadsheet that he developed during the season. He ultimately leads us through his in depth analysis of fantasy sports categories and how our strategies can vary depending on the type of league we join. In the end, he summarizes his techniques in a convenient format that we can easily follow as the fantasy NBA season unfolds. In this, Keith's first book, his writing style emerges as an enjoyable blend of technical discussions mixed with a unique personal touch. As you read through his playbook, you will be drawn to the simplicity of Keith's approach, and you'll appreciate the detailed and incredibly useful information he shares with you. After you read this playbook, you'll be eager to implement the successful fantasy management methods that Keith so carefully outlines. Upon completing his wildly successful season, Keith was eager to become an effective fantasy sports coach. This playbook demonstrates his ability to do just that.

FANTASY BASKETBALL

A WINNING PLAYBOOKBy Keith Meinelt

AuthorHouse

Copyright © 2009 Keith Meinelt
All right reserved.
ISBN: 978-1-4490-1138-3

Contents

Acknowledgements..............................................................vDedication....................................................................viiIntroduction..................................................................1For Fantasy Baseball Managers.................................................5PRESEASON League Participation...............................................7THE DRAFT Draft Discussion...................................................11OPENING DAY Rotoworld's Season Pass..........................................151ST QUARTER Introduction to Ziguana..........................................17TIMEOUT 1 Z-scores and z Totals..............................................232ND QUARTER Spreadsheet Introduction.........................................29HALFTIME Free agent searches.................................................353RD QUARTER Trades...........................................................43TIMEOUT 2 Fantasy sports analogies...........................................474TH QUARTER Different sized leagues..........................................51THE BUZZER BEATER Advanced player searches...................................55THE PLAYOFFS H2H playoffs, negative and ratio categories.....................59THE OFFSEASON Final thoughts.................................................67THE PLAYBOOK Condensed procedures............................................69Appendix Spreadsheet detail and discussion...................................75

Chapter One

For Fantasy Baseball Managers

* * *

The methods I describe in this book can easily be adapted to fantasy baseball. We're halfway through the 2009 baseball season and I've already tailored my spreadsheet and my player research methods to fit the nuances of fantasy baseball. The transition was virtually "seamless."

There are many differences between the two fantasy sports - some obvious and some subtle - but there are also many similarities. In the end, you can succeed in your basketball leagues and in your baseball leagues from reading this manual and incorporating my suggestions.

* * *

Though I discuss different fantasy sports websites and resources throughout this book, I am not, and I have never been, affiliated with, or compensated by, any of these companies in any way. I found most of these resources (and many others) on my own during my rookie season, and I'm sharing with you those that I found most helpful. In addition, please know that Rotoworld.com and Ziguana.com are not affiliated with each other in any way.

For your convenience, I repeat all of my procedures, techniques, and spreadsheet information in condensed form in `The Playbook' and Appendix sections of this manual. In addition, I offer the spreadsheet as a free download at the following website: www.awinningplaybook.com. I hope you enjoy reading this guide as much as I enjoyed writing it!

Chapter Two

PRESEASON

Check your team every day ... even if you're on vacation ... or floating on a small circular piece of ice in the Nordic Sea, assuming you have a cell phone with you. It is your obligation to log in at least once a day, even if only for a minute. Set your lineup properly. Don't leave lackluster, ineffective players on your starting roster just because you're too lazy to hit the waiver wire and find someone better. Matt Stroup, Rotoworld

I enjoy fantasy sports for many reasons. First and foremost, I'm a sports fan. I enjoy watching sporting events, and I like knowing what cool things are happening in the sporting world. I like to know when athletes break Olympic world records, and I enjoy hearing when an NBA player scores 50 points in a game. If it's sports related, and especially if it's front page news, I can appreciate it.

Another reason I enjoy fantasy sports so much is because I have a competitive nature. I like to compete, and fantasy sports offers a fun and healthy environment for me to do so. I often wager a soda when I compete, and it gives me great pleasure to savor every last drop of my winning drink with the individual who had to buy it for me. Along the same lines, it fuels my fire when I receive friendly, but antagonistic, messages from my competing managers after their players have outperformed mine, especially when their talented players were previously on my roster!

Though we're often drawn to the more popular athletic studs, the stature of the player I acquire and the team he plays for are virtually irrelevant. What's important to me are a player's historical statistics, his current playing status, and what I believe his future performance level will be. In the end, little else matters. It's fun to perform this research, and it's very rewarding when a free agent I've located breaks out as a star. Regardless of the amount of time you can invest in your leagues, what I offer in these pages are methods you can utilize to help you make the most of your research time.

* * *

Please know that if you follow my advice, you will need to be an active team manager. I don't mean to imply that you should spend as much time as I did analyzing information. For your sanity's sake, it's probably best you don't! I just mean that by the time the fantasy NBA season ends, if you follow my suggestions, you will be familiar with the performance levels of most NBA players, and you might execute more add/drop transactions than your competing managers.

Assuming you will be an active owner, you should join leagues that do not limit your transactions (i.e. player adds and drops). If your league commissioner significantly limits your available transactions, you could suffer from a lack of flexibility. This is especially true if you join a league that includes end-of-season playoffs, like many H2H leagues include. I'll explain why in 'The Playoffs' section of this book.

Trades are a different matter. Don't worry if your league commissioner limits your trades. In small leagues (100 draft picks or fewer) or in standard-sized leagues (150 draft picks), one or two well-timed and carefully calculated trades should be enough to help you win. Later I'll discuss why I believe it's best not to spend lots of time calculating "perfect" trade offers. Most of our time can be better spent effectively analyzing and acquiring the right free agents at the right times instead of trying to manipulate other managers' rosters.

I also suggest not joining very deep leagues (200+ draft picks). In deep leagues, most of the fantasy-valuable NBA players will be owned and the free agent selection will be limited. In such leagues, trades are more important. That's fine if the other team owners remain active and regularly monitor your league's activities. However, as any fantasy veteran will tell you, some managers will invariably neglect their fantasy managerial duties, and trade offers to these inactive managers will be ignored. As a result, your time-consuming trade research will be wasted. Stay with small or standard-sized leagues and focus on acquiring quality free agents to avoid these trade-related headaches.

Regarding your league participation, my suggestion is to join one rotisserie (Roto) league and one head-to-head (H2H) league. You'll have fun experiencing the different nuances that each scoring style offers. If you join too many leagues, you can spread yourself too thin. On the other hand, if you remain active throughout the season, but you join only one league, you might burn out from analyzing the same data over and over again. Even worse, you might woodenly execute transactions from boredom, which is a waste of your precious time and can also be counterproductive.

This year I've spent many hours researching fantasy sports, evaluating player performances and monitoring my leagues. Fortunately for you, I've determined what works and what doesn't. Regarding your time required, I'll offer a subjective guideline: allow at least three hours per week, per league. If you join a league with season-ending playoffs, allow at least thirty minutes per day during the playoffs. I spent much more time than this managing my first three leagues during my rookie season (just ask my family and friends), but I became more efficient as the season progressed, and you can benefit from the streamlined procedures I offer in this pages.

Chapter Three

THE DRAFT

* * *

Drafting is overrated, but it is still very important in determining your team's final outcome. Winning managers put as much effort into their draft as they do the free agency and waiver wire throughout the season. The trick to coming out on top is to be knowledgeable before the season starts and to remain active throughout the season. Bret Morris, Ziguana.com

The draft, as important as it is, is probably overrated. Consider my case as supporting evidence. In my three leagues combined, I drafted a total of 39 players (13 players per team). By the season's end, I retained only 12 of these original 39 players, and seven of them were listed on Yahoo!'s "Can't Cut" list. The reason I dropped so many of my draft picks is simply because their performances dropped to relatively low levels for extended periods of time.

As an (overly) active manager, I admittedly dropped many of my drafted players too soon. I will argue, however, that it was smart to eventually drop most, if not all, of the players I dropped, which leads me to my point: don't sweat the draft. A successful draft is only one aspect that can help lead you to fantasy victory. With that said, the better you draft, the fewer transactions will be required throughout the season. Therefore, it certainly helps to pay attention during the pre-season and to research the experts' views and observations as draft day approaches.

Earlier, I mentioned that I wouldn't tell you which players to draft. While I won't give you specific names, what I will tell you is to follow the experts' advice on draft day. There are many sources of information available, both in print and online, that can reliably assist you with your draft selections. Personally, I think Rotoworld's Draft Guide is a great source for this information. If you use Rotoworld's Draft Guide, enter your league settings on the website's 'Custom Scoring' section. Then, exactly one day before the draft, print out your customized cheat sheet.

On your league's draft webpage, take the time to electronically pre-rank every single player who is expected to have fantasy value in your league. If you join a league with 8 managers and each team will draft ten players, then pre-rank at least 80 players at your fantasy league's website. If you join a league with 12 managers and every team will draft 13 players, pre-rank at least 156 players. If you join multiple leagues within the same host site (in my case, Yahoo!), you should be able to copy your pre-rankings from one league to the next.

As tempting as it might be to rely on last year's data alone to create your draft cheat sheet, I wouldn't recommend it. Things change constantly throughout the year, including the offseason. The expert fantasy sportswriters know their stuff, and it's best to follow their advice regarding the draft. Steve Alexander of Rotoworld.com claims, "Rotoworld's Draft Guide helps make even the novice appear knowledgeable," and as a former novice, I couldn't agree more.

Assuming you have pre-ranked your players at your league's website, you could skip the actual draft and allow the league's computer system to auto-draft your players for you. For shame! As much fun as I had during the regular season and the playoffs, the action-packed draft is a can't-miss event, especially if you join leagues with personal friends. Don't deprive yourself of this entertainment. Don't auto-draft. Live draft only! In the end, if you do nothing more than pre-rank every player based on expert opinions, and you choose the top available player from your custom list during each round of the draft, you'll do fine.

* * *

Immediately following the draft, review your team and look for weaknesses. Don't wait until the next week or even the next day; do it right away. If you mistakenly drafted a player who you believe you should not have drafted, search the waiver wire and enter your request for an appropriate replacement player. The more competitive your league is, the more likely other managers will be doing the same thing, and it's important you enter your request for your target player before someone else does.

During the days after the draft, but before the season begins, check your league periodically and review any activity. Research your competing owners and try to identify the stronger managers in your league. At your league's website, you should be able to view each manager's historical fantasy sports results. If you identify managers who you believe will be competitive, monitor their actions throughout the season. Pay attention to what these managers do and try to determine why they make the decisions they make. Every advantage you can gain will help as you approach opening day.

Chapter Four

OPENING DAY

Fantasy managers rely on our site for timely, accurate news. Owners adjust their rosters based on what writers at Rotoworld tell them. Many people don't know how much digging we do to obtain the news. By contacting the right resources, we can find out before game time if a player who is listed as `questionable' is going to play. We work hard to find out what's going to happen before it happens. Steve Alexander, Rotoworld

Opening day is great. The drama of the draft is over and we begin to envision a season of fantasy success. If our last-round pick from the draft scores twenty points and grabs ten rebounds on his first night out, we can rejoice in our own good fortune. If we find ourselves at the top of our league after only a day or two, we can wonder in amazement at our own drafting genius, and we can start posting smack talk on our leagues' message boards. Don't be cocky, though, because the season is long and full of surprises!

As far as my opening day advice is concerned, I'm reminded of a pivotal scene from the classic sci-fi movie, Total Recall. Douglas Quaid's character views his real personality, Hauser, on the computer screen and he hears himself say, "Now, this is the plan: get you're a__ to Mars." With this scene in mind, I say to you ... Now, this is the plan: get yourself to Rotoworld's Season Pass website.

The Season Pass site includes many excellent features that help guide fantasy managers throughout the season. In the `Configuration Settings' section, enter any player that appears on one your rosters. Set up your email account in the 'Roto Direct' section and enter your request for Rotoworld to email you updates on your players. These updates will continuously keep you informed of what you need to know to manage and maintain healthy and productive rosters. You might also request the company's other feature articles like The Daily Dose, Roundball Stew and Waiver Wired. By simply reviewing your daily emails from Rotoworld, you can be confident you'll remain up to date with all the pertinent happenings of the NBA.

Chapter Five

1ST QUARTER

The z-score essentially normalizes each statistic by representing how many standard deviations a player is away from the average in that category. At Ziguana, we then tweak our formulas to take into account things like statistical volume for certain categories, which is extremely important for fantasy managers. Ultimately, these z-scores can be used to calculate and compare the overall values of players across any number of categories in roto or head-to-head leagues. Kenny White, Ziguana.com

In November 2008 I searched the Internet for additional NBA-related resources. I was looking for sources of information that provided relevant and customizable data that would help me evaluate player performances. I found many websites that listed extensive game log records, but this data wasn't sufficient because too much time was required to accurately compare players' performance levels in specific categories and for specific time periods.

Some websites offered impressive information, but either the sites were not user friendly enough, or they didn't allow users to customize the data as much as I wanted. Eventually I discovered a website that gained my attention immediately, and the more I navigated the site, the more I became hooked. Enter the world of ...

www.Ziguana.com

Ziguana's main focus is on player and league analysis for the NBA and MLB, and the website's designers present the data in a unique and truly customizable format. Ziguana allows us to customize our research to suit our specific league settings and scoring formats. In addition, Ziguana allows us to effortlessly oversee any Yahoo! or ESPN fantasy leagues. It's not my intention to describe all the features of this website, but I will offer a few reasons why I'm promoting this resource.

First, as stated in the quote at the beginning of this section, Ziguana incorporates volume into its ratio category formulas. Ziguana assigns a "z-score" to each statistical category for every player, and volume is a critical component of ratio categories. There are many ratio categories in the NBA. The most common ones include FG% (field goal percentage), FT% (free throw percentage), 3PT% (three point percentage) and A/T (assist to turnover ratio). Consider the following example using FT%:

Player A -> FT%: 95% FT% z-score: 0.50 Player B -> FT%: 85% FT% z-score: 1.00

If FT% is our only consideration, which player do we want on our team? At first glance, it appears Player A is the better choice because he successfully converts a higher percentage of free throws (95%) than Player B converts (85%). In other words, Player A is the more efficient free throw shooter of the two players. Most fantasy sports resources display these raw percentages only.

A closer look, however, reveals that Player B, though he is less efficient at the line, is actually the more desirable free throw shooter of the two players. The reason Player B is who we want to own is because, according to Ziguana, his FT% z-score (1.00) is higher than Player A's FT% z-score (0.50). How can a player who is less efficient at shooting free throws be more desirable to own? The answer is volume.

(Continues...)

Excerpted from FANTASY BASKETBALLby Keith Meinelt Copyright © 2009 by Keith Meinelt. Excerpted by permission.
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