Decision Analysis and Portfolio Management in th A Practitioner´s Guide

Biopharmaceutical R&D stands at a crossroads. Escalating development costs, persistent clinical attrition, heightened competitive pressures, mounting regulatory complexity, and uncertain commercial rewards have made ""doing more with less""; an inherently flawed strategy for success and sustainability. This one-of-a-kind book reframes the conversation, arguing that the true objective is not simply value creation, but value maximization under risk and uncertainty. By integrating decision analysis with enterprise portfolio management, it provides leaders with the intellectual and operational foundation required to make defensible, high-stakes investment decisions across drug discovery, clinical development, regulatory approval, and commercialization.

Grounded in decades of real-world experience, the book builds on CREOPM, first introduced in 2012, as a pragmatic and maturity-sensitive framework designed to embed analytical rigor, strategic clarity, and disciplined governance into the fabric of R&D organizations. Moving beyond weak data gathering resulting in single-point estimates and deterministic scorecards, it demonstrates how probabilistic modeling, efficient-frontier thinking, and integrated evaluation can transform portfolio construction from reactive budgeting to systematic value optimization. The result is a comprehensive roadmap for organizations seeking sustained competitiveness, transparent decision lineage, and measurable performance improvement in complex Biopharma environments.

Richard Bayney is the President and Founder of Project & Portfolio Value Creation (PPVC), a specialized consulting boutique that delivers an integrated suite of services spanning executive education, decision-support analytics, asset valuation, and R&D portfolio strategy. PPVC's work is grounded in rigorous applications of Decision Analysis, Risk Analysis, and Portfolio Management, and is applied across multiple innovation-driven sectors, including Biopharmaceuticals, Medical Devices and Diagnostics, Consumer Care, and Agriculture. Through this work, Richard advises organizations on aligning scientific uncertainty, regulatory risk, and capital allocation with long-term strategic and commercial objectives. In parallel with his consulting practice, Richard has an extensive academic and professional speaking background. He has served as a lecturer at the University of Pennsylvania, where he taught graduate and executive courses in Decision Modeling and Project Portfolio Management. He is also a frequently invited speaker at industry forums, where he addresses topics such as decision and risk analysis, portfolio optimization, and strategic planning in drug development. Richard brings more than four decades of industry and consulting experience to his work. He is a 23-year veteran of the Biopharma industry, having held roles at Merck, Bayer, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and Johnson & Johnson. In addition, he has spent 18 years in management consulting, working primarily with clients in the United States and Europe. Over the course of his career, he has built and led functions in Strategic Planning, Decision Analysis, and Portfolio Management, and has hands-on operational experience, including two years as an international project manager for a marketed cardiovascular therapy. Earlier in his career, Richard spent a decade as a molecular biologist, conducting research on gene expression in drug detoxification systems and in the pathophysiology of Alzheimer’s disease. He has an M.Sc. and Ph.D. from the University of London, an MBA from Columbia University, and professional certification as a Project Management Professional (PMP) from the Project Management Institute.

Jose Orellana is a Senior Business Consultant and Quantitative Solutions Engineer at Lumivero with over 25 years of experience applying numerical modeling to high-stakes decision making. As a globally recognized expert in the DecisionTools Suite (@RISK, PrecisionTree, Evolver) and XLSTAT, Jose has advised organizations worldwide on navigating the inherent uncertainties of complex R&D cycles. While his foundational expertise was forged in the demanding engineering environments of Schlumberger and P&G, his work now focuses on the “last mile” of decision analysis―the critical bridge between raw data and executive strategy. Leveraging a mastery of Python, machine learning, and traditional Monte Carlo simulation, Jose provides a robust framework for modeling the binary outcomes and long-tail risks characteristic of the pharmaceutical and life sciences sectors.
 Jose holds a B.S. in Electrical Engineering from Cornell University, where he graduated Magna Cum Laude and was inducted into the Tau Beta Pi and Eta Kappa Nu honor societies. His interdisciplinary approach is further bolstered by a Data Analytics certification from UC Berkeley and a Diploma of Management from the Australian Institute of Management. He currently resides in Perth, Western Australia, with his wife and two teenage daughters.