Critical Thinking: A Gentle Introduction (Science of Evidence)

With the loss of trust in traditional news sources, and the Internet, Google, YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, personal Podcasts, and other individual and social media enterprises being the primary news sources, it became necessary for each of us to distinguish better between factual and fabricated information, not only in transnational events, such as the war between Russia and Ukraine or the barbaric attack of Israel by Hamas, but in every aspect of our lives, including politics, elections, work, and personal elements.

This textbook has been written as a gentle introduction to the complex process of critical thinking, which essentially refers to the ability to analyze information objectively and make reasoned judgments.

Conventional courses in logic, probability, and statistics do not prepare us for drawing conclusions based on masses of evidence whose items suggest many, often complex and interrelated, lines of arguments on hypotheses of interest. The evidence usually concerns unique, singular, or one-of-a-kind events and is thus not replicable or repeatable. This means there are rarely any applicable or relevant statistical records available to draw upon in making inferences about the capabilities and intentions of potential or actual adversaries. We had no existing statistical records regarding the intentions of foreigners (September 11th Terrorists) who showed up in our civilian flying schools wishing only to learn how to steer multiengine aircraft and not perform takeoffs or landings.

Lacking existing statistical records to draw upon, we must generate new information by asking questions. Therefore, formal training is needed in the basic analytic tasks of developing novel and productive hypotheses and in constructing defensible and persuasive arguments based on masses of evidence.

Based on our years of experience in training students, intelligence analysts, and high-ranking military officers, we have arrived at several conclusions. The first is that training in the evidential reasoning tasks required in these and other important contexts cannot be learned effectively just by listening to someone discuss his/her own analyses or just by giving students lectures and assigned readings on the topics. What is absolutely necessary is regular practice involving analyses of evidence using either hypothetical situations or examples drawn from actual situations.

It appears that analysts are so often trained in the production of intelligence analyses rather than on the actual process of analysis itself. Very little training is offered regarding the properties, uses, discovery, and marshaling of the evidence upon which all analyses rest.

Analysts need all the help they can get in the face of a tsunami of information and the requirement to answer questions of immediate interest that do not allow time for extensive research on and deliberation of available evidence. Therefore, analysis tools based on solid theoretical foundations should be integrated into intelligence analysis courses to teach the process of analysis (including the properties, uses, discovery, and marshaling of the evidence) through a learning-by-doing approach.

This textbook is written in a style congenial to the interests of student regardless of their prior background and training. It will teach you basic knowledge about the properties, uses, discovery, and marshaling of evidence to show you what is involved in assessing the evidence's relevance, believability, and inferential force credentials. It includes a wide array of examples and exercises and the optional use of Cogent, an intelligent analytic tool involving real and hypothetical cases chosen to help you recognize and evaluate many of the complex elements of the analyses you are learning to perform.