Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis.Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.

N� de ref. del art�culo LU-9780691027913

Contactar al vendedor

Denunciar este art�culo

Detalles bibliogr�ficos

T�tulo: Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics
Editor: Princeton University Press, US
Fecha de publicaci�n: 1996
Idioma: Ingl�s
ISBN 10: 0691027919
ISBN 13: 9780691027913
Encuadernaci�n: Paperback
Estado: New
Dimensiones: 15,24 cent�metros de ancho por 2,26 de alto por 22,86 de largo
Peso: 510 gramos

Acerca de

Sinopsis

Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume-including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast-find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.

Acerca del autor

Philip E. Tetlock is Harold E. Burtt Professor of Psychology and Political Science at the Ohio State University. He is coeditor of Psychology and Social Policy and coauthor of Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology. Aaron Belkin is a Ph.D. candidate in political science at the University of California, Berkeley.

"Sobre este t�tulo" puede pertenecer a otra edici�n de este libro.

Descripci�n de la librer�a

Ver la p�gina web de la librer�a

Informaci�n empresarial del vendedor

Rarewaves USA
10100 West Sample Road, Ste 101, Coral Springs, FL, 33065, U.S.A.

Condiciones de venta y env�o

Condiciones de venta

Derecho a cancelaci�n

Condiciones de env�o

Please note that we do not offer Priority shipping to any country.

We currently do not ship to the below countries:

Afghanistan
Bhutan
Brazil
Brunei Darussalam
Channel Islands
Chile
Israel
Lao
Mexico
Russian Federation
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Yemen

Please do not attempt to place orders with any of these countries as a ship to address - they will be cancelled.

Tarifas de env�o en Estados Unidos de America

Tarifas de env�o en Estados Unidos de America
Cantidad del pedido	De 30 a 30 d�as h�biles	De 14 a 14 d�as h�biles
Primer art�culo	EUR 43.09	EUR 57.74

Los plazos de entrega los establecen los vendedores y var�an seg�n el transportista y la ubicaci�n. Los pedidos que pasan por la aduana pueden sufrir retrasos y los compradores son responsables de los aranceles o tarifas asociadas. Los vendedores pueden ponerse en contacto con usted en relaci�n con cargos adicionales para cubrir cualquier aumento en los costes de env�o de los art�culos.