MULTIANNUAL MACROECO PROGRAMMING TECH.. - Tapa dura

Sinopsis

THIS BOOK DESCRIBES PRACTICAL TECHNIQUES TO FORMULATE MULTIANNUAL MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR DEVELOPING ECONOMIES. THE APPROACH IS BROADLY SIMILAR TO THAT OF WELL-KNOWN FINANCIAL-PROGRAMMING "MODELS", BUT SOME OF THE MATERIAL, INCLUDING SOLUTION PROCEDURES FOR THE EXTERNAL AND FISCAL PROJECTIONS AND THE EXTERNAL-DEBT PROJECTION METHODOLOGY, IS INNOVATIVE. THE BASIC AIM OF MACROECONOMIC PROGRAMMING EXERCISES IS TO DETERMINE WHETHER A QUANTITATIVELY SPECIFIED MACROECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT-EXPENDITURE POLICY PROGRAM WOULD BE "FINANCIALLY FEASIBLE" - THAT IS, CONSISTENT OVER TIME WITH EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL FINANCING LIKELY TO BE AVAILABLE. EXERCISES OF THE KIND DESCRIBED HERE FORMULATE NATIONAL-, EXTERNAL-, FISCAL-, AND MONETARY-ACCOUNTS PROJECTIONS, BASED ON (I) ASSUMED BEHAVIORAL PARAMETERS; (II) ASSUMED "EXOGENOUS" WORLD CONDITIONS AND INTERNAL VARIABLES; (III) PROGRAMMED MACROECONOMIC OBJECTIVES SUCH AS REAL GROWTH, INFLATION, AND EXCHANGE-RATE EVOLUTION; (IV) PROGRAMMED REAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE; (V) AN EXTERNAL-DEBT PROGRAM; AND (VI) DATA FOR THE "BASE" YEAR PRECEDING THE PROJECTION PERIOD. THE PROJECTIONS INCLUDE ESTIMATES OF THE EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL FINANCING THE PUBLIC SECTOR AND ECONOMY AS A WHOLE WOULD REQUIRE, WHICH MAY BE EVALUATED FOR FEASIBILITY. AMONG OTHER APPLICATIONS, MACROECONOMIC PROGRAMMING EXERCISES MAY BE USED TO HELP GAUGE THE FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT AND POVERTY-REDUCTION OBJECTIVES (LIKE THE UN MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS), OR TO ADDRESS EXTERNAL-DEBT "SUSTAINABILITY".

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