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Sinopsis
There is substantial evidence that forecasts made by professionals in a variety of fields display a bias that suggests overconfidence or optimism. This paper investigates EU survey data on investment growth forecasts. A review of the existing literature finds a plethora of behavioral reasons for the biases. Consequently, this paper decides to use the Prospect Theory as an explanatory framework. A hypothesis is developed that links the forecasting bias to asymmetric behavior between potential gains and losses as well as risk-seeking and risk-averse behavior among forecasters. It is due to this behavior that actual investments do not equal planned investments, resulting in a positive bias.
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Reseña del editor
There is substantial evidence that forecasts made by professionals in a variety of fields display a bias that suggests overconfidence or optimism. This paper investigates EU survey data on investment growth forecasts. A review of the existing literature finds a plethora of behavioral reasons for the biases. Consequently, this paper decides to use the Prospect Theory as an explanatory framework. A hypothesis is developed that links the forecasting bias to asymmetric behavior between potential gains and losses as well as risk-seeking and risk-averse behavior among forecasters. It is due to this behavior that actual investments do not equal planned investments, resulting in a positive bias.
Biografía del autor
The author grew up as an expatriate in Malaysia and now lives in Germany. He received a Master of Financial Economics degree from the University of Maastricht, Netherlands. In his spare time Michael enjoys kite-boarding and reading up on other academic works.
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- EditorialLAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing
- Año de publicación2011
- ISBN 10 3844300449
- ISBN 13 9783844300444
- EncuadernaciónTapa blanda
- IdiomaInglés
- Número de páginas68
- Contacto del fabricanteno disponible
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The Prospect of Rosy Investment Forecasts
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LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing Jan 2011, 2011
ISBN 10: 3844300449
ISBN 13: 9783844300444
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Librería: BuchWeltWeit Ludwig Meier e.K., Bergisch Gladbach, Alemania
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Taschenbuch. Condición: Neu. This item is printed on demand - it takes 3-4 days longer - Neuware -There is substantial evidence that forecasts made by professionals in a variety of fields display a bias that suggests overconfidence or optimism. This paper investigates EU survey data on investment growth forecasts. A review of the existing literature finds a plethora of behavioral reasons for the biases. Consequently, this paper decides to use the Prospect Theory as an explanatory framework. A hypothesis is developed that links the forecasting bias to asymmetric behavior between potential gains and losses as well as risk-seeking and risk-averse behavior among forecasters. It is due to this behavior that actual investments do not equal planned investments, resulting in a positive bias. 68 pp. Englisch. Nº de ref. del artículo: 9783844300444
Cantidad disponible: 2 disponibles
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The Prospect of Rosy Investment Forecasts : Why professional investment grow forecasts tend to display overconfidence and optimism
Publicado por
LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing, 2011
ISBN 10: 3844300449
ISBN 13: 9783844300444
Nuevo
Taschenbuch
Librería: AHA-BUCH GmbH, Einbeck, Alemania
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Taschenbuch. Condición: Neu. nach der Bestellung gedruckt Neuware - Printed after ordering - There is substantial evidence that forecasts made by professionals in a variety of fields display a bias that suggests overconfidence or optimism. This paper investigates EU survey data on investment growth forecasts. A review of the existing literature finds a plethora of behavioral reasons for the biases. Consequently, this paper decides to use the Prospect Theory as an explanatory framework. A hypothesis is developed that links the forecasting bias to asymmetric behavior between potential gains and losses as well as risk-seeking and risk-averse behavior among forecasters. It is due to this behavior that actual investments do not equal planned investments, resulting in a positive bias. Nº de ref. del artículo: 9783844300444
Cantidad disponible: 1 disponibles
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The Prospect of Rosy Investment Forecasts
Publicado por
LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing, 2011
ISBN 10: 3844300449
ISBN 13: 9783844300444
Nuevo
Tapa blanda
Librería: moluna, Greven, Alemania
Calificación del vendedor: 4 de 5 estrellas
Condición: New. Dieser Artikel ist ein Print on Demand Artikel und wird nach Ihrer Bestellung fuer Sie gedruckt. Autor/Autorin: Heyer MichaelThe author grew up as an expatriate in Malaysia and now lives in Germany. He received a Master of Financial Economics degree from the University of Maastricht, Netherlands. In his spare time Michael enjoys kite-boarding . Nº de ref. del artículo: 5470556
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Imagen del vendedor
The Prospect of Rosy Investment Forecasts
Publicado por
LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing Jan 2011, 2011
ISBN 10: 3844300449
ISBN 13: 9783844300444
Nuevo
Taschenbuch
Librería: buchversandmimpf2000, Emtmannsberg, BAYE, Alemania
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Taschenbuch. Condición: Neu. Neuware -There is substantial evidence that forecasts made by professionals in a variety of fields display a bias that suggests overconfidence or optimism. This paper investigates EU survey data on investment growth forecasts. A review of the existing literature finds a plethora of behavioral reasons for the biases. Consequently, this paper decides to use the Prospect Theory as an explanatory framework. A hypothesis is developed that links the forecasting bias to asymmetric behavior between potential gains and losses as well as risk-seeking and risk-averse behavior among forecasters. It is due to this behavior that actual investments do not equal planned investments, resulting in a positive bias.Books on Demand GmbH, Überseering 33, 22297 Hamburg 68 pp. Englisch. Nº de ref. del artículo: 9783844300444
Cantidad disponible: 2 disponibles
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The Prospect of Rosy Investment Forecasts: Why professional investment grow forecasts tend to display overconfidence and optimism
Publicado por
LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing, 2011
ISBN 10: 3844300449
ISBN 13: 9783844300444
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Librería: Mispah books, Redhill, SURRE, Reino Unido
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Paperback. Condición: Like New. Like New. book. Nº de ref. del artículo: ERICA79038443004496
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