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Sinopsis
CAUSAL ANALYTICS METHODS CAN REVOLUTIONIZE THE USE OF DATA TO MAKE EFFECTIVE DECISIONS BY REVEALING HOW DIFFERENT CHOICES AFFECT PROBABILITIES OF VARIOUS OUTCOMES. THIS BOOK PRESENTS AND ILLUSTRATES MODELS, ALGORITHMS, PRINCIPLES, AND SOFTWARE FOR DERIVING CAUSAL MODELS FROM DATA AND FOR USING THEM TO OPTIMIZE DECISIONS WITH UNCERTAIN OUTCOMES. IT DISCUSSES HOW TO DESCRIBE AND SUMMARIZE SITUATIONS; DETECT CHANGES; EVALUATE EFFECTS OF POLICIES OR INTERVENTIONS; LEARN WHAT WORKS BEST UNDER DIFFERENT CONDITIONS; PREDICT VALUES OF AS-YET UNOBSERVED QUANTITIES FROM AVAILABLE DATA; AND IDENTIFY THE MOST LIKELY EXPLANATIONS FOR OBSERVED OUTCOMES, INCLUDING SURPRISES AND ANOMALIES. THE BOOK RESENTS PRACTICAL TECHNIQUES FOR CAUSAL MODELING AND ANALYTICS THAT PRACTITIONERS CAN APPLY TO IMPROVE UNDERSTANDING OF HOW CHOICES AFFECT PROBABILITIES OF CONSEQUENCES AND, BASED ON THIS UNDERSTANDING, TO RECOMMEND CHOICES THAT ARE MORE LIKELY TO ACCOMPLISH THEIR INTENDED OBJECTIVES.<DIV>THE BOOK BEGINS WITH A SURVEY OF MODERN ANALYTICS METHODS, FOCUSING MAINLY ON TECHNIQUES USEFUL FOR DECISION, RISK, AND POLICY ANALYSIS. CHAPTER 2 INTRODUCES FREE IN-BROWSER SOFTWARE, INCLUDING THE CAUSAL ANALYTICS TOOLKIT (CAT) SOFTWARE, TO ENABLE READERS TO PERFORM THE ANALYSES DESCRIBED AND TO APPLY MODERN ANALYTICS METHODS EASILY TO THEIR OWN DATA SETS. CHAPTERS 3 THROUGH 11 SHOW HOW TO APPLY CAUSAL ANALYTICS AND RISK ANALYTICS TO PRACTICAL RISK ANALYSIS CHALLENGES, MAINLY RELATED TO PUBLIC AND OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH RISKS FROM PATHOGENS IN FOOD OR FROM POLLUTANTS IN AIR. CHAPTERS 12 THROUGH 15 TURN TO BROADER QUESTIONS OF HOW TO IMPROVE RISK MANAGEMENT DECISION-MAKING BY INDIVIDUALS, GROUPS, ORGANIZATIONS, INSTITUTIONS, AND MULTI-GENERATION SOCIETIES WITH DIFFERENT CULTURES AND NORMS FOR COOPERATION. THESE CHAPTERS EXAMINE ORGANIZATIONAL LEARNING, COMMUNITY RESILIENCE, SOCIETAL RISK MANAGEMENT, AND INTERGENERATIONAL COLLABORATION AND JUSTICE IN MANAGING RISKS.<BR></DIV>
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Reseña del editor
Causal analytics methods can revolutionize the use of data to make effective decisions by revealing how different choices affect probabilities of various outcomes. This book presents and illustrates models, algorithms, principles, and software for deriving causal models from data and for using them to optimize decisions with uncertain outcomes. It discusses how to describe and summarize situations; detect changes; evaluate effects of policies or interventions; learn what works best under different conditions; predict values of as-yet unobserved quantities from available data; and identify the most likely explanations for observed outcomes, including surprises and anomalies. The book resents practical techniques for causal modeling and analytics that practitioners can apply to improve understanding of how choices affect probabilities of consequences and, based on this understanding, to recommend choices that are more likely to accomplish their intended objectives.The book begins with a survey of modern analytics methods, focusing mainly on techniques useful for decision, risk, and policy analysis. Chapter 2 introduces free in-browser software, including the Causal Analytics Toolkit (CAT) software, to enable readers to perform the analyses described and to apply modern analytics methods easily to their own data sets. Chapters 3 through 11 show how to apply causal analytics and risk analytics to practical risk analysis challenges, mainly related to public and occupational health risks from pathogens in food or from pollutants in air. Chapters 12 through 15 turn to broader questions of how to improve risk management decision-making by individuals, groups, organizations, institutions, and multi-generation societies with different cultures and norms for cooperation. These chapters examine organizational learning, community resilience, societal risk management, and intergenerational collaboration and justice in managing risks.
Biografía del autor
Drs. Tony Cox, Douglas Popken, and Richard Sun are experts in risk analysis, operations research, and computer science who have collaborated over the past three decades on diverse analytics applications and software products, including telecommunications network and operations optimization, health risk analysis, and machine learning innovations for making optimal use of costly information. Dr. Cox is also a member of the National Academy of Engineering and Editor-in-Chief of Risk Analysis: An International Journal.
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- EditorialSpringer
- Año de publicación2018
- ISBN 10 3319782401
- ISBN 13 9783319782409
- EncuadernaciónTapa dura
- IdiomaInglés
- Número de edición1
- Número de páginas612
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Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis: 270 (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, 270) [Hardcover] Cox Jr., Louis Anthony; Popken, Douglas A. and Sun, Richard X.
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ISBN 13: 9783319782409
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Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis
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Gebunden. Condición: New. Dieser Artikel ist ein Print on Demand Artikel und wird nach Ihrer Bestellung fuer Sie gedruckt. Highlights causal analytics methods that answer how changing decision variables can change probabilities of various outcomesPresents models, algorithms, principles, and software for deriving causal models from data in order to optimize decisionsSurv. Nº de ref. del artículo: 218768119
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Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, 270)
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Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis
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Buch. Condición: Neu. This item is printed on demand - it takes 3-4 days longer - Neuware -Causal analytics methods can revolutionize the use of data to make effective decisions by revealing how different choices affect probabilities of various outcomes. This book presents and illustrates models, algorithms, principles, and software for deriving causal models from data and for using them to optimize decisions with uncertain outcomes. It discusses how to describe and summarize situations; detect changes; evaluate effects of policies or interventions; learn what works best under different conditions; predict values of as-yet unobserved quantities from available data; and identify the most likely explanations for observed outcomes, including surprises and anomalies. The book resents practical techniques for causal modeling and analytics that practitioners can apply to improve understanding of how choices affect probabilities of consequences and, based on this understanding, to recommend choices that are more likely to accomplish their intended objectives.The book begins with a survey of modern analytics methods, focusing mainly on techniques useful for decision, risk, and policy analysis. Chapter 2 introduces free in-browser software, including the Causal Analytics Toolkit (CAT) software, to enable readers to perform the analyses described and to apply modern analytics methods easily to their own data sets. Chapters 3 through 11 show how to apply causal analytics and risk analytics to practical risk analysis challenges, mainly related to public and occupational health risks from pathogens in food or from pollutants in air. Chapters 12 through 15 turn to broader questions of how to improve risk management decision-making by individuals, groups, organizations, institutions, and multi-generation societies with different cultures and norms for cooperation. These chapters examine organizational learning, community resilience, societal risk management, and intergenerational collaboration and justice in managing risks. 612 pp. Englisch. Nº de ref. del artículo: 9783319782409
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Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis
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ISBN 10: 3319782401
ISBN 13: 9783319782409
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Buch. Condición: Neu. Druck auf Anfrage Neuware - Printed after ordering - Causal analytics methods can revolutionize the use of data to make effective decisions by revealing how different choices affect probabilities of various outcomes. This book presents and illustrates models, algorithms, principles, and software for deriving causal models from data and for using them to optimize decisions with uncertain outcomes. It discusses how to describe and summarize situations; detect changes; evaluate effects of policies or interventions; learn what works best under different conditions; predict values of as-yet unobserved quantities from available data; and identify the most likely explanations for observed outcomes, including surprises and anomalies. The book resents practical techniques for causal modeling and analytics that practitioners can apply to improve understanding of how choices affect probabilities of consequences and, based on this understanding, to recommend choices that are more likely to accomplish their intended objectives.The book begins with a survey of modern analytics methods, focusing mainly on techniques useful for decision, risk, and policy analysis. Chapter 2 introduces free in-browser software, including the Causal Analytics Toolkit (CAT) software, to enable readers to perform the analyses described and to apply modern analytics methods easily to their own data sets. Chapters 3 through 11 show how to apply causal analytics and risk analytics to practical risk analysis challenges, mainly related to public and occupational health risks from pathogens in food or from pollutants in air. Chapters 12 through 15 turn to broader questions of how to improve risk management decision-making by individuals, groups, organizations, institutions, and multi-generation societies with different cultures and norms for cooperation. These chapters examine organizational learning, community resilience, societal risk management, and intergenerational collaboration and justice in managing risks. Nº de ref. del artículo: 9783319782409
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