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Sinopsis
WINNER OF THE CMI MANAGEMENT FUTURES BOOK OF THE YEAR AWARD. What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60 per cent greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to out perform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit - whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.
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Acerca del autor
Philip Tetlock is Leonore Annenberg University Professor of Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author of several books on politics and psychology, including Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics and the award-winning Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Dan Gardner is a journalist, author and lecturer. He is the best-selling author of Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway and Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear, which was published in 11 countries and 7 languages. He lives in Ottawa, Canada.
De la contraportada
What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?
Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it.
In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that even the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who are nonetheless able to predict the future with a 60% greater degree of accuracy than regular forecasters. They are superforecasters.
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group of people. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.
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Superforecasting : The Art and Science of Prediction
Publicado por
Penguin Random House, 2015
ISBN 10: 184794714X
ISBN 13: 9781847947147
Antiguo o usado
Tapa blanda
Librería: Better World Books Ltd, Dunfermline, Reino Unido
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Condición: Very Good. Ships from the UK. Used book that is in excellent condition. May show signs of wear or have minor defects. Nº de ref. del artículo: 52928993-20
Cantidad disponible: 1 disponibles
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Librería: AwesomeBooks, Wallingford, Reino Unido
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Paperback. Condición: Very Good. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction This book is in very good condition and will be shipped within 24 hours of ordering. The cover may have some limited signs of wear but the pages are clean, intact and the spine remains undamaged. This book has clearly been well maintained and looked after thus far. Money back guarantee if you are not satisfied. See all our books here, order more than 1 book and get discounted shipping. Nº de ref. del artículo: 7719-9781847947147
Cantidad disponible: 2 disponibles
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Librería: Bahamut Media, Reading, Reino Unido
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Paperback. Condición: Very Good. This book is in very good condition and will be shipped within 24 hours of ordering. The cover may have some limited signs of wear but the pages are clean, intact and the spine remains undamaged. This book has clearly been well maintained and looked after thus far. Money back guarantee if you are not satisfied. See all our books here, order more than 1 book and get discounted shipping. Nº de ref. del artículo: 6545-9781847947147
Cantidad disponible: 2 disponibles
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Superforecasting
Publicado por
Cornerstone, United Kingdom, London, 2015
ISBN 10: 184794714X
ISBN 13: 9781847947147
Antiguo o usado
Paperback
Librería: WorldofBooks, Goring-By-Sea, WS, Reino Unido
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Paperback. Condición: Very Good. WINNER OF THE CMI MANAGEMENT FUTURES BOOK OF THE YEAR AWARD. What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60 per cent greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to out perform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit - whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. The book has been read, but is in excellent condition. Pages are intact and not marred by notes or highlighting. The spine remains undamaged. Nº de ref. del artículo: GOR007222504
Cantidad disponible: 15 disponibles
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Publicado por
Random House Books, 2015
ISBN 10: 184794714X
ISBN 13: 9781847947147
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Tapa blanda
Librería: Anybook.com, Lincoln, Reino Unido
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Condición: Good. This is an ex-library book and may have the usual library/used-book markings inside.This book has soft covers. In good all round condition. Please note the Image in this listing is a stock photo and may not match the covers of the actual item,550grams, ISBN:9781847947147. Nº de ref. del artículo: 5769270
Cantidad disponible: 1 disponibles