Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty - Tapa dura

In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know-and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don't know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. It answers the questions "what is risk analysis?" and "how do I do this?"

Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, the book provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. In the first part of the book, readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks-risk management, assessment, and communication. The second part of the book supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles. From problem identification and brainstorming to model building and choosing a probability distribution, the author walks readers through the how-to of risk assessment. Addressing the critical task of risk communication, he explains how to present the results of assessments and how to develop effective messages.

The book's simple and straightforward style-based on the author's decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator-strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles in a manner that empowers readers to begin the practice of risk analysis, to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis.

Additional exercises as well as a free student version of the Palisade Corporation DecisionTools® Suite software and files used in the preparation of this book are available for download.

Charles Yoe is a professor of economics at Notre Dame of Maryland University, Baltimore, U.S.A., and an independent risk analysis consultant and trainer. Working extensively for U.S. and other government agencies as a consultant and risk analyst, his wide range of risk experience includes international trade, food safety, natural disasters, public works, homeland security, ecosystem restoration, resource development, navigation, planning, and water resources. As a consultant to private industry, his work includes a discrete but wide variety of concerns. He has trained professionals from more than one hundred countries in risk analysis and conducted customized risk training programs for government agencies and private industry in over two dozen nations.