Census of the Commonwealth of Australia, Vol. 1: The Mathematical Theory of Population, of Its Character and Fluctuations, and of the Factors Which Influence Them (Classic Reprint) - Tapa blanda

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Excerpt from Census of the Commonwealth of Australia, Vol. 1: The Mathematical Theory of Population, of Its Character and Fluctuations, and of the Factors Which Influence Them

The following monograph Hon the Mathematical Theory of Population, in form an appendix to the Report on the Australian Census of 1911, is intended to serve a double purpose. It aims on the one hand at supplying the elements of a mathematical technique, such as are needed for the analysis of the various aspects of vital phenomena that come under statistical review, and, on the other, at interpreting material made available by the first Census of Australian which has been carried out upon uniform lines and by a central authority. The earlier portion of the appendix has consequently been almost wholly devoted to the creation of the requisite technique. Later technical solutions are introduced only when required by way of application to any statistical analysis under immediate review.

In the realm of official statistics there is an enormous amount of accumulated material, which, decade after decade, remains unanalysed and uninterpreted. This is due to several things, viz., to the fact that routine tabulations largely occupy the energies of the staffs of statistical bureaux; to the fact that much of the mass of material itself is defective and its correction involves more time than is available; and perhaps still more to the fact that appropriate schemes of mathematical analysis have as yet either not been developed, or are regarded as inapplicable.

The present analyses and interpretations have yielded many results which, it is believed, will be seen to be of value. They have brought into clearer relief the necessity for recognising that the variation of any one statistical element affects all other statistical elements, so that the satisfactory reduction of "crude data" to a common system is by no means an easy undertaking, and the comparability of the statistic of two communities can never be rigorously exact in all particulars. It is fortunate, however, that practically exactitude means merely "a precision sufficient for any particular purpose in view."

In substance this monograph consists of two elements, viz., (i.) a technical one, and (ii.) an interpretative one. Formulæ essential for the purposes of interpretation have been deduced, and their use has been illustrated by application to the data of the Australian Censuses, or to intercensal statistical data which, subject otherwise to considerable uncertainty, could be adjusted only by means of information derived from the Census. Thus results of immediate value are obtained simultaneously with an exposition of the theory and technique of the subject.

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