The Problem of Business Forecasting (Classic Reprint): Papers Presented at the Eighty-Fifth Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association, Washington, December 27-29, 1923 - Tapa blanda
Sinopsis
Explore the science of forecasting business with a classic collection of expert analyses. This volume gathers papers from the 1923 American Statistical Association meeting to explain how economists read cycles, production signals, and price trends to anticipate the next move in the economy.
The book presents historical perspectives on cyclical movements in a competitive economy and offers methods readers can study to improve forecasting. It frames the uncertainties of predicting business activity and shows how data from production, prices, and inventories can inform judgment about future trends.
- Foundations of business forecasting and why cycles matter.
- How production and price signals interact during upswings and downturns.
- Practical approaches researchers used to interpret economic indicators in the early 20th century.
- Examples of data interpretation that influenced policy and industry decisions.
Ideal for readers of economics, statistics, and business forecasting seeking historical context and practical insight into forecasting challenges.
"Sinopsis" puede pertenecer a otra edición de este libro.
Reseña del editor
Excerpt from The Problem of Business Forecasting: Papers Presented at the Eighty-Fifth Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association, Washington, December 27-29, 1923
What is true of human conduct in general is true of conduct in business. When a man enters business, he enters a forecasting profession. He may forecast badly or well, but forecast he must. He may scorn business fore casters, but he cannot help being one. He may Shun sta tistics, but he cannot help using them. Since business is essentially risk-taking with the expectation of profits, every enterpriser must run risks; and, as a risk-taker, he is necessarily a business forecaster. That is to say, his decision to take a risk is based on predictions concerning the degree of the risk and the reward for taking it. He must decide when to make loans, when to buy cotton, when to build a factory, what styles of Shoes to manu facture, when to increase his output. In every case his decision to take one risk rather than another is influenced by his expectation concerning the future the trend of interest rates, the price of cotton next week, building costs next April, the demand for tanned shoes next spring, the output of competitors next year. Indeed, any enterpriser could fill an entire volume with the decisions he is forced to make in the ordinary course of business, and every one of them would involve forecasting on a statistical basis.
About the Publisher
Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com
This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
Reseña del editor
Excerpt from The Problem of Business Forecasting: Papers Presented at the Eighty-Fifth Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association, Washington, December 27-29, 1923
Human conduct is based largely upon forecast, and forecasts are based largely upon statistics. At first sight, this sweeping statement may seem far from the truth, so much of human conduct appears to have no rational basis whatever. Yet a little thought will show, first, that nearly everything men do in the present is done with the expectation that certain events will take place in the future; and, second, that the expectation itself grows out of events which are known or supposed to have taken place in the past. And that is precisely what we mean by rational conduct. It matters not what the question at issue may be. It may concern buying a radio set, choosing a career, insuring against accident, taking a train or planting a tree. In every case, the decision is made on the basis of expectations which, because of a number of past occurrences, appear to be reasonable. Even those events that sometimes seem to be prompted purely by emotion, such as getting married, are not exceptions to the rule. Among sane people, what we call irrational conduct does not differ from highly rational conduct in having no statistical basis. The difference lies in the adequacy of the statistics for the purpose at hand and in the way in which they are used. Men make many mistakes, to be sure. These mistakes, however, are seldom due to reckless disregard of the future. They are due mainly to one or both of two causes: first, the unreliability of the data; second, faulty reasoning.
About the Publisher
Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com
This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
"Sobre este título" puede pertenecer a otra edición de este libro.
Resultados de la búsqueda para The Problem of Business Forecasting (Classic Reprint):...
Imagen del vendedor
The Problem of Business Forecasting (Classic Reprint)
Impresión bajo demandaLibrería: Forgotten Books, London, Reino Unido
Calificación del vendedor: 4 de 5 estrellas
Paperback. Condición: New. Print on Demand. This book delves into the statistical basis for analyzing economic trends in business activities, with a particular focus on predicting business cycles. The author, an established expert in the field, draws on data from a five-year period following World War I to illustrate concepts like trade cycles and factory production. The book also examines fluctuations in retail and wholesale trade, price levels, railway traffic, and other key economic indicators. Through these analyses, the author demonstrates how businesses can better anticipate future economic conditions and make informed decisions based on statistical insights. By providing a deeper understanding of business cycles, this book empowers readers to navigate economic fluctuations more effectively. This book is a reproduction of an important historical work, digitally reconstructed using state-of-the-art technology to preserve the original format. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in the book. print-on-demand item. Nº de ref. del artículo: 9781330524213_0
Comprar nuevo
EUR 20,01
Gastos de envío gratis
Se envía de Reino Unido a Estados Unidos de America
Se envía de Reino Unido a Estados Unidos de America
Cantidad disponible: Más de 20 disponibles
Imagen de archivo
The Problem of Business Forecasting
Librería: PBShop.store US, Wood Dale, IL, Estados Unidos de America
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
PAP. Condición: New. New Book. Shipped from UK. Established seller since 2000. Nº de ref. del artículo: LW-9781330524213
Comprar nuevo
EUR 31,74
Gastos de envío gratis
Se envía dentro de Estados Unidos de America
Se envía dentro de Estados Unidos de America
Cantidad disponible: 15 disponibles
Imagen de archivo
The Problem of Business Forecasting
Librería: PBShop.store UK, Fairford, GLOS, Reino Unido
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
PAP. Condición: New. New Book. Shipped from UK. Established seller since 2000. Nº de ref. del artículo: LW-9781330524213
Comprar nuevo
EUR 28,96
Envío por EUR 5,89
Se envía de Reino Unido a Estados Unidos de America
Se envía de Reino Unido a Estados Unidos de America
Cantidad disponible: 15 disponibles
Imagen de archivo
The Problem of Business Forecasting : Papers Presented at the Eighty-Fifth Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association, Washington, December 27-29, 1923 (Classic Reprint)
Publicado por
Forgotten Books, 2015
ISBN 10: 1330524217
ISBN 13: 9781330524213
Antiguo o usado
Tapa blanda
Librería: Buchpark, Trebbin, Alemania
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Condición: Sehr gut. Zustand: Sehr gut | Seiten: 336 | Sprache: Englisch | Produktart: Bücher | Keine Beschreibung verfügbar. Nº de ref. del artículo: 25820292/2
Comprar usado
EUR 25,14
Envío por EUR 105,00
Se envía de Alemania a Estados Unidos de America
Se envía de Alemania a Estados Unidos de America
Cantidad disponible: 1 disponibles