Reanalysis weather data is obtained for dates surrounding historical nuclear tests and processed through Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) software to produce a high-resolution weather forecast. Output from RAMS is visualized to check for validity and input into Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) software and modeled predictions are compared to historical observation data. Simulations are conducted using constant high resolution weather and varying terrain resolution. The HPAC prediction is numerically compared to historical observation data. The result of this research culminated in the knowledge that early-time, low-altitude wind data was neglected by HPAC's incorporation of the Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code (DELFIC) Cloud Rise Module, resulting in HPAC predictions being inaccurate for early fallout deposition.
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Reanalysis weather data is obtained for dates surrounding historical nuclear tests and processed through Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) software to produce a high-resolution weather forecast. Output from RAMS is visualized to check for validity and input into Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) software and modeled predictions are compared to historical observation data. Simulations are conducted using constant high resolution weather and varying terrain resolution. The HPAC prediction is numerically compared to historical observation data. The result of this research culminated in the knowledge that early-time, low-altitude wind data was neglected by HPAC's incorporation of the Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code (DELFIC) Cloud Rise Module, resulting in HPAC predictions being inaccurate for early fallout deposition.
Christopher P. Jones is George Martin Lane Professor of the Classics and of History, Emeritus, Harvard University.
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