Artículos relacionados a Prediction of the Temporal Evolution of Solar X-Ray...

Prediction of the Temporal Evolution of Solar X-Ray Flares - Tapa blanda

Williams, Aaron J.

 
9781249599739: Prediction of the Temporal Evolution of Solar X-Ray Flares
Tapa blanda
ISBN 10: 1249599733 ISBN 13: 9781249599739
Editorial: BiblioScholar, 2012

Sinopsis


A solar flare is an explosive release of stored magnetic energy on the Sun. Much of this energy is converted into x-ray photons which escape into space. As a solar flare begins, the 1-8 x-ray photon flux at Earth's orbit, as measured by the GOES satellite, rapidly increases. It quickly reaches a peak and slowly decays. A plot of this flux exhibits an approximate lognormal shape. A lognormal function becomes a normal, symmetric, function when the logarithm of the independent variable is taken. Once the peak flux is reached, this symmetry is used to make a prediction of the flare end time. Examining over 1300 flares, an improvement in the flare end time prediction over the current climatological method is demonstrated. Predictions of the evolution of the flux prior to reaching the peak flux are also made beginning five minutes after flare onset. An effort to predict the temporal evolution prior to the peak is made using a fourth order least squares fit to the rise-phase flux alone and the rise-phase flux plus an estimate of the decay flux. Using both methods, accurate predictions of the x-ray flux evolution are made when the rise phase averages 65% complete.

"Sinopsis" puede pertenecer a otra edición de este libro.

Reseña del editor


A solar flare is an explosive release of stored magnetic energy on the Sun. Much of this energy is converted into x-ray photons which escape into space. As a solar flare begins, the 1-8 x-ray photon flux at Earth's orbit, as measured by the GOES satellite, rapidly increases. It quickly reaches a peak and slowly decays. A plot of this flux exhibits an approximate lognormal shape. A lognormal function becomes a normal, symmetric, function when the logarithm of the independent variable is taken. Once the peak flux is reached, this symmetry is used to make a prediction of the flare end time. Examining over 1300 flares, an improvement in the flare end time prediction over the current climatological method is demonstrated. Predictions of the evolution of the flux prior to reaching the peak flux are also made beginning five minutes after flare onset. An effort to predict the temporal evolution prior to the peak is made using a fourth order least squares fit to the rise-phase flux alone and the rise-phase flux plus an estimate of the decay flux. Using both methods, accurate predictions of the x-ray flux evolution are made when the rise phase averages 65% complete.

"Sobre este título" puede pertenecer a otra edición de este libro.

Editorial
BiblioScholar
Año de publicación
2012
Idioma
Inglés
ISBN 10 
1249599733
ISBN 13 
9781249599739
Encuadernación
Tapa blanda
Número de páginas
86
Contacto del fabricante
no disponible
Persona responsable
no disponible