Counterfactual Reasoning: A Basic Guide for Analysts, Strategists, and Decision Makers - Tapa blanda

Hendrickson Ph.D, Noel

 
9781105055638: Counterfactual Reasoning: A Basic Guide for Analysts, Strategists, and Decision Makers
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ISBN 10: 1105055639 ISBN 13: 9781105055638
Editorial: Lulu Press, Inc., 2011

Sinopsis

Counterfactual reasoning evaluates conditional claims about alternate possibilities and their consequences (i.e., “What If” statements). Counterfactuals are essential to intelligence analysis. The process of counterfactual reasoning has three stages. First, one must establish the particular way in which the alternate possibility comes to be (i.e., develop its “back-story”). Second, one must evaluate the events that occur between the time of the alternate possibility and the time for which one is considering its consequences. And third, one must examine the possible consequences of the alternate possibility’s back-story and the events that follow it. In doing so, an analyst must connect conclusions to specific types of strategic assessment: decision making under risk or decision making under uncertainty. This book includes notes, glossary and references. (Noel Hendrickson is Director of the Institute for National Security Analysis. Originally published by Proteus.)

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Reseña del editor

Counterfactual reasoning evaluates conditional claims about alternate possibilities and their consequences (i.e., "What If" statements). Counterfactuals are essential to intelligence analysis. The process of counterfactual reasoning has three stages. First, one must establish the particular way in which the alternate possibility comes to be (i.e., develop its "back-story"). Second, one must evaluate the events that occur between the time of the alternate possibility and the time for which one is considering its consequences. And third, one must examine the possible consequences of the alternate possibility's back-story and the events that follow it. In doing so, an analyst must connect conclusions to speci

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Editorial
Lulu Press, Inc.
Año de publicación
2011
Idioma
Inglés
ISBN 10 
1105055639
ISBN 13 
9781105055638
Encuadernación
Tapa blanda
Número de páginas
86
Contacto del fabricante
no disponible
Persona responsable
HACHETTE LIVRE SA
https://www.hachette.fr/

1 AVENUE GUTENBERG
MAUREPAS CEDEX
78319
Francia

Otras ediciones populares con el mismo título

9781480270787: Counterfactual Reasoning: A Basic Guide for Analysts, Strategists, and Decision Makers: The Proteus Monograph Series - Volume 2, Issue 5

Edición Destacada

ISBN 10:  1480270784 ISBN 13:  9781480270787
Editorial: CreateSpace Independent Publishi..., 2012
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