Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking (Technical Report (RAND)) - Tapa blanda

This report describes an approach to high-level decision support that deals explicitly with uncertainty in effects-based operations or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Two approaches are described, one using portfolio-style thinking and analysis, the other a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses inclusion of humans in dealing with uncertainty. Some investment priorities are also recommended.

A framework for supporting high-level decisionmaking, one that deals explicitly with uncertainty to produce flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR) strategies, and does so in support of both "rational-analytic" and "intuitive" decisionmakers.