The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future

3,59 valoración promedio
( 583 valoraciones por Goodreads )
 
9780812979770: The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future

Book by Bueno De Mesquita Bruce

"Sinopsis" puede pertenecer a otra edición de este libro.

Críticas:

"Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has demonstrated the power of using game theory and related assumptions of rational and self-seeking behavior in predicting the outcome of important political and legal processes. No one will fail to appreciate and learn from this well-written and always interesting account of his procedures."--Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Prize-winning economist; Professor Emeritus, Stanford University
"The Predictioneer's Game teaches us that we can predict how a conflict may be resolved if we carefully consider the incentives for all parties in the conflict. In an extraordinary range of applications, from ancient history to tomorrow's headlines, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita demonstrates the power of the game-theoretic approach."--Roger B. Myerson, Nobel Prize-winning economist; Professor, University of Chicago
"Organized thought applied to problems can illuminate and help solve them. This easy and enjoyable read is, in many ways, a how-to book for that very purpose."--George P. Shultz, former U.S. Secretary of State
"Shakespeare said that poetry was giving 'to airy nothingness a local habitation and a name.' Game theory has never been airy nothingness, but to those who through lack of exposure or (like me) the wrong kind of exposure years ago may have had such thoughts, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita follows Shakespeare's path and opens a new world. In Bueno de Mesquita's hands, game theory becomes a fascinating tool for understanding everything from how to steer the selection of a CEO to great swaths of both the past and future. Don't miss this one if you care about understanding how decisions are made-pretty much all decisions."--R. James Woolsey, former Director of Central Intelligence; Annenberg Distinguished Visiting Fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution
"Bueno de Mesquita has successfully turned the art of decision-making into a science - and enriched our understanding of politics and business in the process. Dispensing with cliches about rationality and irrationality, he explains how to predict behavior based on the relevant players' interests and contexts. Bueno de Mesquita says he does not have a crystal ball, but this book gives readers the ingredients to build their own."--Parag Khanna, author of The Second World: How Emerging Powers are Redefining Global Competition in the 21st Century

"Fruitful reading that will make it difficult to look at the world through quite the same eyes as in one's virginal, pre--game theory days."--Kirkus Reviews
"Provocative. . . . [this] cogently argued and fascinating brief will appeal to anyone interested in complex national-security issues."--Publishers Weekly

From the Hardcover edition.

-Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has demonstrated the power of using game theory and related assumptions of rational and self-seeking behavior in predicting the outcome of important political and legal processes. No one will fail to appreciate and learn from this well-written and always interesting account of his procedures.---Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Prize-winning economist; Professor Emeritus, Stanford University
-The Predictioneer's Game teaches us that we can predict how a conflict may be resolved if we carefully consider the incentives for all parties in the conflict. In an extraordinary range of applications, from ancient history to tomorrow's headlines, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita demonstrates the power of the game-theoretic approach.---Roger B. Myerson, Nobel Prize-winning economist; Professor, University of Chicago
-Organized thought applied to problems can illuminate and help solve them. This easy and enjoyable read is, in many ways, a how-to book for that very purpose.---George P. Shultz, former U.S. Secretary of State
-Shakespeare said that poetry was giving 'to airy nothingness a local habitation and a name.' Game theory has never been airy nothingness, but to those who through lack of exposure or (like me) the wrong kind of exposure years ago may have had such thoughts, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita follows Shakespeare's path and opens a new world. In Bueno de Mesquita's hands, game theory becomes a fascinating tool for understanding everything from how to steer the selection of a CEO to great swaths of both the past and future. Don't miss this one if you care about understanding how decisions are made-pretty much all decisions.---R. James Woolsey, former Director of Central Intelligence; Annenberg Distinguished Visiting Fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution
-Bueno de Mesquita has successfully turned the art of decision-making into a science - and enriched our understanding of politics and business in the process. Dispensing with cliches about rationality and irrationality, he explains how to predict behavior based on the relevant players' interests and contexts. Bueno de Mesquita says he does not have a crystal ball, but this book gives readers the ingredients to build their own.---Parag Khanna, author of The Second World: How Emerging Powers are Redefining Global Competition in the 21st Century

-Fruitful reading that will make it difficult to look at the world through quite the same eyes as in one's virginal, pre--game theory days.---Kirkus Reviews
-Provocative. . . . [this] cogently argued and fascinating brief will appeal to anyone interested in complex national-security issues.---Publishers Weekly

From the Hardcover edition.

Reseña del editor:

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts.
Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize--winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban).
But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn't just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius, and negotiate only over the phone).
Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer's Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life's a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose.

From the Hardcover edition.

"Sobre este título" puede pertenecer a otra edición de este libro.

Los mejores resultados en AbeBooks

1.

Bruce Bueno De Mesquita
ISBN 10: 081297977X ISBN 13: 9780812979770
Nuevos Cantidad: > 20
Librería
BWB
(Valley Stream, NY, Estados Unidos de America)
Valoración
[?]

Descripción Estado de conservación: New. Depending on your location, this item may ship from the US or UK. Nº de ref. de la librería 97808129797700000000

Más información sobre esta librería | Hacer una pregunta a la librería

Comprar nuevo
EUR 9,56
Convertir moneda

Añadir al carrito

Gastos de envío: GRATIS
A Estados Unidos de America
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envío

2.

Bueno De Mesquita, Bruce
ISBN 10: 081297977X ISBN 13: 9780812979770
Nuevos Cantidad: > 20
Librería
Paperbackshop-US
(Wood Dale, IL, Estados Unidos de America)
Valoración
[?]

Descripción 2010. PAP. Estado de conservación: New. New Book. Shipped from US within 10 to 14 business days. Established seller since 2000. Nº de ref. de la librería VR-9780812979770

Más información sobre esta librería | Hacer una pregunta a la librería

Comprar nuevo
EUR 8,47
Convertir moneda

Añadir al carrito

Gastos de envío: EUR 3,56
A Estados Unidos de America
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envío

3.

Bruce Bueno De Mesquita
Editorial: Random House USA Inc, United States (2010)
ISBN 10: 081297977X ISBN 13: 9780812979770
Nuevos Paperback Cantidad: 1
Librería
The Book Depository
(London, Reino Unido)
Valoración
[?]

Descripción Random House USA Inc, United States, 2010. Paperback. Estado de conservación: New. 202 x 130 mm. Language: English . Brand New Book. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts. Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize--winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban). But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn t just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius, and negotiate only over the phone). Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer s Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life s a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose. From the Hardcover edition. Nº de ref. de la librería AAS9780812979770

Más información sobre esta librería | Hacer una pregunta a la librería

Comprar nuevo
EUR 12,12
Convertir moneda

Añadir al carrito

Gastos de envío: GRATIS
De Reino Unido a Estados Unidos de America
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envío

4.

Bruce Bueno De Mesquita
Editorial: Random House USA Inc, United States (2010)
ISBN 10: 081297977X ISBN 13: 9780812979770
Nuevos Paperback Cantidad: 1
Librería
The Book Depository US
(London, Reino Unido)
Valoración
[?]

Descripción Random House USA Inc, United States, 2010. Paperback. Estado de conservación: New. 202 x 130 mm. Language: English . Brand New Book. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts. Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize--winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban). But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn t just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius, and negotiate only over the phone). Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer s Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life s a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose. From the Hardcover edition. Nº de ref. de la librería AAS9780812979770

Más información sobre esta librería | Hacer una pregunta a la librería

Comprar nuevo
EUR 12,17
Convertir moneda

Añadir al carrito

Gastos de envío: GRATIS
De Reino Unido a Estados Unidos de America
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envío

5.

BUENO DE MESQUITA, BRUCE
Editorial: Penguin Random House
ISBN 10: 081297977X ISBN 13: 9780812979770
Nuevos Cantidad: > 20
Librería
INDOO
(Avenel, NJ, Estados Unidos de America)
Valoración
[?]

Descripción Penguin Random House. Estado de conservación: New. Brand New. Nº de ref. de la librería 081297977X

Más información sobre esta librería | Hacer una pregunta a la librería

Comprar nuevo
EUR 9,08
Convertir moneda

Añadir al carrito

Gastos de envío: EUR 3,12
A Estados Unidos de America
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envío

6.

Bueno De Mesquita, Bruce
ISBN 10: 081297977X ISBN 13: 9780812979770
Nuevos Cantidad: > 20
Librería
Pbshop
(Wood Dale, IL, Estados Unidos de America)
Valoración
[?]

Descripción 2010. PAP. Estado de conservación: New. New Book.Shipped from US within 10 to 14 business days. Established seller since 2000. Nº de ref. de la librería IB-9780812979770

Más información sobre esta librería | Hacer una pregunta a la librería

Comprar nuevo
EUR 8,94
Convertir moneda

Añadir al carrito

Gastos de envío: EUR 3,56
A Estados Unidos de America
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envío

7.

Bruce Bueno De Mesquita
Editorial: Random House USA Inc, United States (2010)
ISBN 10: 081297977X ISBN 13: 9780812979770
Nuevos Paperback Cantidad: 10
Librería
Book Depository hard to find
(London, Reino Unido)
Valoración
[?]

Descripción Random House USA Inc, United States, 2010. Paperback. Estado de conservación: New. 202 x 130 mm. Language: English . This book usually ship within 10-15 business days and we will endeavor to dispatch orders quicker than this where possible. Brand New Book. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts. Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize--winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban). But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn t just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius, and negotiate only over the phone). Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer s Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life s a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose. From the Hardcover edition. Nº de ref. de la librería BTE9780812979770

Más información sobre esta librería | Hacer una pregunta a la librería

Comprar nuevo
EUR 12,70
Convertir moneda

Añadir al carrito

Gastos de envío: GRATIS
De Reino Unido a Estados Unidos de America
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envío

8.

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce
ISBN 10: 081297977X ISBN 13: 9780812979770
Nuevos Paperback Cantidad: 18
Librería
BargainBookStores
(Grand Rapids, MI, Estados Unidos de America)
Valoración
[?]

Descripción Paperback. Estado de conservación: New. Nº de ref. de la librería 872550

Más información sobre esta librería | Hacer una pregunta a la librería

Comprar nuevo
EUR 9,28
Convertir moneda

Añadir al carrito

Gastos de envío: EUR 3,56
A Estados Unidos de America
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envío

9.

Bueno De Mesquita, Bruce
Editorial: Random House Trade Paperbacks
ISBN 10: 081297977X ISBN 13: 9780812979770
Nuevos PAPERBACK Cantidad: 1
Librería
Qwestbooks COM LLC
(Bensalem, PA, Estados Unidos de America)
Valoración
[?]

Descripción Random House Trade Paperbacks. PAPERBACK. Estado de conservación: New. 081297977X. Nº de ref. de la librería Z081297977XZN

Más información sobre esta librería | Hacer una pregunta a la librería

Comprar nuevo
EUR 13,64
Convertir moneda

Añadir al carrito

Gastos de envío: GRATIS
A Estados Unidos de America
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envío

10.

Bueno De Mesquita, Bruce
Editorial: Random House Trade Paperbacks (2010)
ISBN 10: 081297977X ISBN 13: 9780812979770
Nuevos Paperback Cantidad: 10
Librería
Murray Media
(North Miami Beach, FL, Estados Unidos de America)
Valoración
[?]

Descripción Random House Trade Paperbacks, 2010. Paperback. Estado de conservación: New. Nº de ref. de la librería 081297977X

Más información sobre esta librería | Hacer una pregunta a la librería

Comprar nuevo
EUR 10,98
Convertir moneda

Añadir al carrito

Gastos de envío: EUR 2,67
A Estados Unidos de America
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envío

Existen otras copia(s) de este libro

Ver todos los resultados de su búsqueda