Artículos relacionados a Future Babble
Sinopsis
An award-winning journalist uses landmark research to debunk the whole expert prediction industry, and explores the psychology of our obsession with future history.
In 2008, experts predicted gas would hit $20 a gallon; it peaked at $4.10. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart- throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.
In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely he is to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
In 2008, experts predicted gas would hit $20 a gallon; it peaked at $4.10. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart- throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.
In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely he is to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
"Sinopsis" puede pertenecer a otra edición de este libro.
Acerca de los autores
Dan Gardner is a columnist and senior writer for the Ottawa Citizen and the author of The Science of Fear. He has received numerous awards for his writing, including the Michener Award. Gardner lives in Ottawa.
Dan Gardner is a columnist for the Ottawa Citizen and the author of The Science of Fear: How the Culture of Fear Manipulates Your Brain, an international bestseller published in eleven countries and seven languages. He has received numerous awards for his writing, including the Michener Award and the Amnesty International Canadian Media Award. Dan Gardner lives in Ottawa, Canada,
"Sobre este título" puede pertenecer a otra edición de este libro.
Comprar nuevo
Ver este artículo
EUR 13,97
EUR 4,26 gastos de envío en Estados Unidos de America
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envíoOtras ediciones populares con el mismo título
Resultados de la búsqueda para Future Babble
Imagen de archivo
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better
Librería: World of Books (was SecondSale), Montgomery, IL, Estados Unidos de America
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Condición: Good. Item in good condition. Textbooks may not include supplemental items i.e. CDs, access codes etc. Nº de ref. del artículo: 00088287333
Cantidad disponible: 1 disponibles
Imagen de archivo
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better
Librería: Gulf Coast Books, Cypress, TX, Estados Unidos de America
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
hardcover. Condición: Good. Nº de ref. del artículo: 0525952055-3-34782128
Cantidad disponible: 1 disponibles
Imagen de archivo
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better
Librería: More Than Words, Waltham, MA, Estados Unidos de America
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Condición: Very Good. . Good. All orders guaranteed and ship within 24 hours. Before placing your order for please contact us for confirmation on the book's binding. Check out our other listings to add to your order for discounted shipping. Nº de ref. del artículo: WAL-V-3c-01746
Cantidad disponible: 1 disponibles
Imagen de archivo
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better
Librería: ThriftBooks-Phoenix, Phoenix, AZ, Estados Unidos de America
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Hardcover. Condición: Very Good. No Jacket. May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 1.22. Nº de ref. del artículo: G0525952055I4N00
Cantidad disponible: 1 disponibles
Imagen de archivo
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better
Librería: ThriftBooks-Reno, Reno, NV, Estados Unidos de America
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Hardcover. Condición: Very Good. No Jacket. May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 1.22. Nº de ref. del artículo: G0525952055I4N00
Cantidad disponible: 1 disponibles
Imagen de archivo
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better
Librería: ThriftBooks-Atlanta, AUSTELL, GA, Estados Unidos de America
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Hardcover. Condición: Very Good. No Jacket. May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 1.22. Nº de ref. del artículo: G0525952055I4N00
Cantidad disponible: 1 disponibles
Imagen de archivo
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better
Librería: ThriftBooks-Dallas, Dallas, TX, Estados Unidos de America
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Hardcover. Condición: Very Good. No Jacket. May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 1.22. Nº de ref. del artículo: G0525952055I4N00
Cantidad disponible: 1 disponibles
Imagen de archivo
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better
Librería: KuleliBooks, Phoenix, AZ, Estados Unidos de America
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
hardcover. Condición: Good. The book may have minor cosmetic wear (i.e. creased spine/cover, scratches, curled corners, folded pages, minor sunburn, minor water damage, minor bent). The book may have some highlights/notes/underlined pages - Accessories such as CD, codes, toys, may not be included - Safe and Secure Mailer - No Hassle Return. Nº de ref. del artículo: 521YH0001293
Cantidad disponible: 1 disponibles
Imagen de archivo
Future Babble : Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better
Publicado por
Penguin Publishing Group, 2011
ISBN 10: 0525952055
ISBN 13: 9780525952053
Antiguo o usado
Tapa dura
Original o primera edición
Librería: Better World Books: West, Reno, NV, Estados Unidos de America
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Condición: As New. First Edition. Used book that is in almost brand-new condition. Nº de ref. del artículo: 41202399-6
Cantidad disponible: 1 disponibles
Imagen de archivo
Future Babble : Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better
Publicado por
Penguin Publishing Group, 2011
ISBN 10: 0525952055
ISBN 13: 9780525952053
Antiguo o usado
Tapa dura
Original o primera edición
Librería: Better World Books, Mishawaka, IN, Estados Unidos de America
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Condición: Good. First Edition. Former library book; may include library markings. Used book that is in clean, average condition without any missing pages. Nº de ref. del artículo: GRP88613706
Cantidad disponible: 1 disponibles