On the Reasonableness of Regressive Expectations (Classic Reprint) - Tapa dura

Sinopsis

Excerpt from On the Reasonableness of Regressive Expectations

Several attempts have been made to find explanations of such inaccuracy and, in particular, of such seemingly improbable regressivity in the forecasts. Since most analysts have presumed that expectations used in businessmen's Operw ations and planning cannot actually be consistently regressive, they have found themselves in the position of having to explain.away the observed evidence for regressiveness in the aggregated forecasts. Their explanations have consequently argued that such regressiveness is introduced into the expectations either by biases in.the design or administration of the survey or by confusion among the respondents about the base from which they forecast change.l Thus Ferber [22.

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