Risk Analysis A Quantitative Guide Risk and uncertainty are key features of most business and government problems and need to be understood for rational decisions to be made. This book concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modelling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Following on from the success of the previous edition of this clearly written and highly regarded book, this edition is extensively revised and updated and will provide an invaluable practical guide for beginners and experienced practitioners alike. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modelling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems. Reviews of the first edition "It identifies the various facets of risk analysis and provides a valuable reference to the concepts and techniques employed." Project, 1997 "It clearly explains many essential aspects of quantitative risk analysis . provides valuable techniques and sound professional advice." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 12, 1999 "The book offers a powerful method for dealing with risk and uncertainty." Zentralblatt für Mathematik, Band 908, 1999
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The Ten Commandments to quantitative risk analysis Morgan and Henrion, 1990
* Do your homework with literature, experts and users
* Let the problem drive the analysis
* Make the analysis as simple as possible, but no simpler
* Identify all significant assumptions
* Be explicit about decision criteria and policy strategy
* Be explicit about uncertainties
* Perform systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
* Iteratively refine the problem statement and analysis
* Document clearly and completely
* Expose to peer review
David Vose is an independent consultant specialising in Monte Carlo risk analysis with eleven years' experience in simulation modelling. He has used risk analysis in an extensive range of industry and government problems, from food safety, nuclear power, and epidemiology to foreign exchange risk, oil and gas, construction, utilities, and general commerce. David Vose is based in Europe but consults globally. He provides advice on specific and general risk issues, produces risk assessment models and lectures and runs public, in-house and web-based training seminars in various aspects of risk analysis modelling.
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