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Perhaps no one has more experience--and success--in long-term forecasting and planning than author Ian Morrison. Serving literally hundreds of corporate clients over the years, he has won recognition for his analysis of social and economic trends. The author of numerous books and articles, a sought-after lecturer and consultant, and president of the Institute for the Future, Ian carries an impressive resume.

The Institute for the Future (commonly called the IFTF) is, in Ian's words, "a unique organization." He describes it as "a think tank structured as a non-profit organization and dedicated to helping organizations, both public and private, think systematically about the long run." Indeed, its list of clients is formidable. In 1985, Ian came to IFTF to serve as a research director; after five years, he was selected to be its president, a position he holds today. Over the years, he has advised such companies as Chase Manhattan, IBM, Volvo, Bristol-Meyer Squibb, and Cable and Wireless.

In keeping with the far-reaching work Ian conducts today, he boasts a rich educational background: a Ph.D. in urban studies from the University of British Columbia, a degree in urban planning from the University of Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, England, and an M.A. in geography from the University of Edinburgh, Scotland. Ian has coauthored several books and contributed to many others, including Future Tense: The Business Realities of the Next Ten Years (William Morrow, 1994) and Reforming the System: Containing Health Care Costs in an Era of Universal Coverage (Faulkner & Gray, 1992). He also has coauthored numerous journal articles for publications such as Encyclopedia Britannica, Across the Board, The British Medical Journal, New England Journal of Medicine, and Journal of the American Medical Association.

Ian Morrison is a member of the Corporate Advisory Boards of Bristol-Myers Squibb and Interim HealthCare. He is also a member of the Board of Directors of Interim Services, a leading temporary-services company.

Ian Morrison is the president of the Institute for the Future (IFTF).

De la contraportada

EYE OPENER . . . THE FUTURE IS GROWTH AND THAT GROWTH IS ON THE SECOND CURVE."
--George Harvey, Chairman, President, and CEO Pitney Bowes, Inc.

In The Second Curve, Ian Morrison creates a revolutionary new business model that can be used no matter what the market upheaval. His theory is deceptively simple: you must ride the first curve--a company's traditional business carried out in a familiar corporate climate--to the all-important second curve. The second curve is the future--the new technologies, new consumers, and new markets that companies must command to survive and thrive.

In the many companies Morrison profiles, leaders have learned to master both the first and second curves, to anticipate the rate and pace of change, to know when and how to jump from the first curve to the second, and whether and when to play both. This book sets forth all the crucial strategies and explains how businesses can apply them to rapidly changing situations.

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De la solapa interior

EYE OPENER . . . THE FUTURE IS GROWTH AND THAT GROWTH IS ON THE SECOND CURVE."
--George Harvey, Chairman, President, and CEO Pitney Bowes, Inc.

In The Second Curve, Ian Morrison creates a revolutionary new business model that can be used no matter what the market upheaval. His theory is deceptively simple: you must ride the first curve--a company's traditional business carried out in a familiar corporate climate--to the all-important second curve. The second curve is the future--the new technologies, new consumers, and new markets that companies must command to survive and thrive.

In the many companies Morrison profiles, leaders have learned to master both the first and second curves, to anticipate the rate and pace of change, to know when and how to jump from the first curve to the second, and whether and when to play both. This book sets forth all the crucial strategies and explains how businesses can apply them to rapidly changing situations.

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Fragmento. © Reproducción autorizada. Todos los derechos reservados.

Second Curve

By Ian Morrison

Ballantine Books

Copyright © 1996 Ian Morrison
All right reserved.
ISBN: 9780345405418
THE SECOND CURVE: Excerpt

So how does the second curve--and what others have done--affect your business? Companies can choose to stay on the first curve (at least for a while), to jump to the second curve, or to play both curves. But regardless of direction, the decision must be informed by intelligence (in both meanings of the word) and hard strategic choices.

Analyzing Your Business in Terms of Second Curves

Looking at your business in terms of a second curve involves two general steps: learning how to spot the real thing and gauging the pace of change.

The first step is figuring out whether or not what you think is a second curve really is one--whether it's a phantom, just something going bump in the corporate night. It's tricky business; even those experienced in the world of the second curve never quite know whether the second curve is real or not. Is that blip on the screen a true emerging technology, something like a PC in 1977, or groupware in 1985? Or is it an almost, a kind of gadget-technology that will always be a big deal "ten years from now"--a videophone or personal helicopter. Could even be a fad that flames out. Does anybody remember CB radios or videotext? How about Betamax and eight-track tapes? Wing-walker's rule number one applies big time here: Never leave your position on one wing (or curve) until the next one is a sure thing....

Staying on the First Curve

Playing on the second curve isn't always the best choice; sometimes it simply makes more sense to stay with the first curve--as long as you've examined that second curve thoroughly. Even if you're a committed first-curve player, you need to know something about the second curve, if only to know what to expect from your competitors.

The scenario for a company for which staying with the first curve might be the right decision would go something like this: The company recognizes that massive structural change is on the way--its industry will soon change dramatically--and that this change will create a second curve. But there's a strong market share on the first curve, and the company's core competencies suggest that it can get more out of the current market than it can by jumping to the new one. So you don't jump--you stay with the first curve....

Jumping to the Second Curve

But say you have some luck, or smarts, or both, and that the second curve is looking pretty real, and you're thinking about making the jump. The next question is when, just as it is with any big decision: you decide what you're going to do, then you decide when to do it. Only in this case, the when is crucial. Do you jump now and walk away from your best customers? Jumping to the second curve too soon could mean walking away from a still viable source of revenue or--worse yet--going head-to-head with yourself or your best customers....

But if you hang on, will it be too late? If you stay on the old curve too long, you may never get a chance to move to the second curve and get into the game, and (once again) you can lose a lot of money. Ask Western Union. They owned telegraphy--they still do--they just missed out on radio, television, and the computer....

Playing Both Curves

We've talked about situations in which a company might choose to play one curve or the other, and there are certainly times when that's the best choice. But for most large companies, the reality is that choosing one curve or the other isn't really an option; it's a luxury they can't afford. The forces of change driving the second curve aren't going away; those changes--and certainly others that we can't even define yet--will continue to generate two curves, and to make it to the twenty-first century, most companies will have to learn to manage on both curves.

Easier said than done: most large companies don't know where to start. They know how to continuously make a profit, to innovate, to be competitive in the short run, but that's not the same as managing on two curves. But corporations will have to go beyond reengineering, time-based competition, and core competencies, and focus instead on long-term growth. To perpetuate themselves as market leaders, companies will have to build second-curve organizations, while continuing to get as much as possible from their first-curve businesses. Those that don't won't survive.

Continues...

Excerpted from Second Curve by Ian Morrison Copyright © 1996 by Ian Morrison. Excerpted by permission.
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