Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-Linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies - Tapa dura

Raydugin, Yuri G

 
9780198844334: Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-Linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies
Tapa dura
ISBN 10: 0198844336 ISBN 13: 9780198844334
Editorial: Oxford University Press(UK), 2020

Sinopsis

Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both parametric and Monte Carlo methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in the majority of cases. Apparently, these methods have unacceptably high systematic errors as they miss out critically important components of project risk exposure. In the case of complex projects, the components associated with structural and delivery complexity are often overlooked.

Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies zeroes in on the most crucial but systematically overlooked characteristics of complex projects. Any mismatches between two fundamental interacting subsystems - a project structure subsystem and a project delivery subsystem - result in non-linear interactions of project risks. Three kinds of the interactions are distinguished - internal risk amplifications stemming from long-term ('chronic') project system issues, knock-on interactions, and risk compounding.

Affinities of interacting risks compose dynamic risk patterns supported by a project system. A new methodology to factor the patterns into Monte Carlo modelling referred to as "non-linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis" (N-SCRA) is developed and demonstrated. It is capable of forecasting project outcomes with high accuracy even in the case of most complex and difficult projects, including notorious projects-outliers, and it has a much lower rate of systematic error.

In this book, the power of project system dynamics is uncovered. It can be adopted as an accurate risk quantification methodology in complex projects, and the results produced by the system dynamics and the non-linear Monte Carlo methodologies are well-aligned.

All built Monte Carlo and system dynamics models are available on the book's companion website.

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Acerca del autor

Dr Yuri G. Raydugin is Principal Consultant of Risk Services & Solution Inc., a Canadian consulting company. Yuri worked for Royal Dutch Shell, TransCanada Pipelines, SNC-Lavalin, and Saudi Aramco, managing risks of several megaprojects. He has been involved in risk management of projects with combined budget of about $150B.

Yuri has an engineering degree in nuclear physics from Urals Polytechnics Institute, Russia, a PhD in physics and mathematics from Russia's Academy of Sciences, and an MBA in business strategy from Henley Management College in England. He is a member of the Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of Alberta (APEGA) and Saudi Council of Engineers (SCE).

"Sobre este título" puede pertenecer a otra edición de este libro.

Editorial
Oxford University Press(UK)
Año de publicación
2020
Idioma
Inglés
ISBN 10 
0198844336
ISBN 13 
9780198844334
Encuadernación
Tapa dura
Número de páginas
376
Contacto del fabricante
no disponible
Persona responsable
gpsr@libri.de
gpsr@libri.de

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