Illusion of Democracy in Dependent Nations (v. 3) (The Politics of Change in Venezuela) - Tapa dura

The diagnosis of a national political system is put to test in Venezuela, a country that has seen a sudden and violent acceleration of structural changes over the past 40 years. This study builds on the hypothesis that such a situation creates cultural contradictions and conflicts which affect the formulation and implementation of development policies. It is based on some 5500 interviews and eight distinct types of sampling schemes with three dozen survey groups to show why democracy is permanently in crisis in an underdeveloped country.Chapter I describes the diagnostic approach used to build an analytical model of Venezuelan society. Chapter II reviews the major historical changes that have shaped present conditions, such as colonization and slavery, domination of foreign economic interests, dictatorships and student demonstrations. The remaining chapters pursue a detailed evaluation of the social groups that have influenced Venezuela's recent history, their values and experience of change. Michelena finds that while all groups have undergone a substantive positive change, social inequality has increased. An exploration of group "weltanshauungs" reveals a correlation between their socioeconomic status and political capacity. Groups with high status were found to be congenial towards development, had a firm sense of psychological autonomy, and were thus able to perceive problems and their possible solutions differently from the mass of the population. Two final syntheses using diverse methods show that Venezuelan society harbors a conservative element that frustrates attempts to distribute the benefits of change equally among social groups.Following the Orwellian example and his analytical model, Michelena predicts that a revolutionary crisis may exist by 1984. He points to a series of events that are likely to occur (including possible exhaustion of oil reserves), and concludes that whether or not a crisis will develop or be resolved depends on the political ability of the social groups to manage current conflicts within a system whose real possibilities to tolerate or to make the necessary structural changes is a weak point in the functioning and organization of Venezuelan society. But, the author more hopefully indicates, there are new nationalistic attitudes and new organizations to articulate social needs--which could bring about a more adaptive, humane, and self-supporting political system.This is the final report in a long-term research project aimed at formulating rational policies for the development of Venezuela. The project is a joint endeavor by members of the Centro de Estudios del Desarrollo of the Universidad Central de Venezuela (CENDES) and the Center for International Studies at M.I.T.