Benford's Law: Theory, the General Law of Relative Quantities, and Forensic Fraud Detection Applications - Tapa dura

Contrary to common intuition that all digits should occur randomly with equal chances in real data, empirical examinations consistently show that not all digits are created equal, but rather that low digits such as {1, 2, 3} occur much more frequently than high digits such as {7, 8, 9} in almost all data types, such as those relating to geology, chemistry, astronomy, physics, and engineering, as well as in accounting, financial, econometrics, and demographics data sets. This intriguing digital phenomenon is known as Benford's Law.This book gives a comprehensive and in-depth account of all the theoretical aspects, results, causes and explanations of Benford's Law, with a strong emphasis on the connection to real-life data and the physical manifestation of the law. In addition to such a bird's eye view of the digital phenomenon, the conceptual distinctions between digits, numbers, and quantities are explored; leading to the key finding that the phenomenon is actually quantitative in nature; originating from the fact that in extreme generality, nature creates many small quantities but very few big quantities, corroborating the motto 'small is beautiful', and that therefore all this is applicable just as well to data written in the ancient Roman, Mayan, Egyptian, and other digit-less civilizations.Fraudsters are typically not aware of this digital pattern and tend to invent numbers with approximately equal digital frequencies. The digital analyst can easily check reported data for compliance with this digital law, enabling the detection of tax evasion, Ponzi schemes, and other financial scams. The forensic fraud detection section in this book is written in a very concise and reader-friendly style; gathering all known methods and standards in the accounting and auditing industry; summarizing and fusing them into a singular coherent whole; and can be understood without deep knowledge in statistical theory or advanced mathematics. In addition, a digital algorithm is presented, enabling the auditor to detect fraud even when the sophisticated cheater is aware of the law and invents numbers accordingly. The algorithm employs a subtle inner digital pattern within the Benford's pattern itself. This newly discovered pattern is deemed to be nearly universal, being even more prevalent than the Benford phenomenon, as it is found in all random data sets, Benford as well as non-Benford types.

This book tells the story of a newly discovered and apparently mysterious digital phenomenon of Benford's Law. This phenomenon manifests itself by the empirical finding that not all digits are created equal, but rather that low digits such as 1, 2, 3 occur much more frequently than high digits such as 7, 8, 9, in accounting, financial, scientific, and almost all other data types. This work represents the first ever published work giving a comprehensive and in depth account of all the theoretical aspects and applications of Benford's Law. The reader is subsequently led into a fascinating intellectual journey through the interacting worlds of digits, numbers, and quantities, a journey that ends with the compelling conclusion that the entire phenomenon is truly quantitative in nature, and applicable just as well to the ancient Roman, Mayan, and Egyptian digit-less civilizations. The second section covers the applications of the law in forensic data analysis for the purpose of fraud detection. It is concise, reader-friendly, and can be understood without deep knowledge in statistical theory or difficult mathematics. This fraud detection section gathers all known methods, results, and standards in the accounting and auditing industry, from quite a wide variety of articles on this issue, summarizes and fuses them into a singular coherent whole. In addition, a newly invented (patent-pending) digital algorithm is presented, enabling the auditor to detect such fraud even when the sophisticated and well-educated cheater is aware of the law and attempts to appear as if he or she is innocently complying with the digital pattern. A large portion of the book is devoted to understanding the variety of causes explanations of the phenomenon. Seeing Benford's Law in this bird's eye view enables the reader to see the forest in all its glory and beauty instead of tiring one's self repeatedly checking individual trees.