Business Cycles (1923) - Tapa blanda

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This book offers an analytic description of the complicated processes by which seasons of business prosperity, crisis, depression, and revival come about in the modern world. The materials used consist chiefly of market reports and statistics concerning the business cycles which have run their course since 1890 in the United States, England, Germany, and Prance. I am the sorrier for the bulkiness of the volume because I have written for the man of business as well as for the professional economist. Doubtless a skillful expositor might have presented the same results in fewer pages; but most of the bulk is due to my conviction that the quickest way to attain reliable results is to take great care in measuring the phenomena exhibited by business cycles. Readers who look over the first chapter will find that many diverse theories about the causes of crises seem plausible when considered in the light of common knowledge. To determine which of these explanations are really valid, it is necessary to find out the regularity with which each alleged stress recurs, the scope which each attains, the elements which enter into each, and the consequences with which each is associated. To make progress toward the solution of these problems requires the collection and analysis of elaborate records of business experience in quantitative form. Men seriously interested in the workings of the money economy will share my regret that the statistical materials are not more complete, rather than complain that too many tables are offered. And if any who lack time or patience for study take up the book, the .S uggestions toR eaders will show them where to find the gist of the conclusions. One of the chief difficulties in the investigation has been to get quantitative data for the four countries dealt with which can fairly be compared. Official documents and business journals present
(Typographical errors above are due to OCR software and don't occur in the book.)