Trade paperback. Condici�n: good. First Edition. Presumed first printing. 23 cm, ix, [1], 223, [3] pages. wraps, figures, chapter notes, appendices, some wear to covers. This is number 2 in the series. Dr. Roy Godson, a Senior Fellow in the Program on National Security at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, is Emeritus Professor of Government at Georgetown University and served from 1993 to 2015 as president of the National Strategy Information Center. Dr. Godson has been a consultant to the US National Security Council and related US government agencies as well as to foreign governments and civil society. Dr. Godson has authored and edited over 30 books and monographs, as well as curricula for US and foreign governments and universities. His most recent publications include: Towards Democratic Transitions: The Case of North Africa (2013); Adapting America's Security Paradigm and Security Agenda (2011); Armed Groups and Irregular Warfare: Adapting Professional Military Education (2009); Democratic Security for the Americas: Intelligence Requirements (2008); Strategic Denial and Deception: The Twenty-First Century Challenge (2001); Dirty Tricks or Trump Cards: U.S. Covert Action and Counterintelligence (2001); Organized Crime and Democratic Governability: Mexico and the U.S.-Mexican Borderlands (2000); and Security Studies for the 21st Century (1998). Topics covered include comparative historical experience of doctrine and organization; evaluating U.S. intelligence estimates; avoiding political and technological surprise in the 1980's; incorporating analysis of foreign governments' deception into the U.S. analytical system; recruitment, training, and incentives for better analysis (paper by William E. Colby); and the problems of the intelligence consumer. National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) are United States federal government documents that are the authoritative assessment of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) on intelligence related to a particular national security issue. NIEs are produced by the National Intelligence Council and express the coordinated judgments of the United States Intelligence Community, the group of 16 U.S. intelligence agencies. NIEs are classified documents prepared for policymakers. NIEs are considered to be "estimative" products, in that they present what intelligence analysts estimate may be the course of future events. Coordination of NIEs involves not only trying to resolve any inter-agency differences, but also assigning confidence levels to the key judgments and rigorously evaluating the sourcing for them. Each NIE is reviewed and approved for dissemination by the National Intelligence Board (NIB), which comprises the DNI and other senior leaders within the Intelligence Community. National Intelligence Estimates were first produced in 1950 by the Office of National Estimates. This office was superseded in 1973 by National Intelligence Officers. This group of experts became the National Intelligence Council in 1979. In the early years, the National Intelligence Council reported to the Director of Central Intelligence in his role as the head of the Intelligence Community; however, in 2005, the Director of National Intelligence became the head of the Intelligence Community. Senior civilian and military policymakers, including congressional leaders, typically request NIEs. Before a NIE is drafted, the relevant National Intelligence Officer (NIO) produces a concept paper or 'terms of reference' (TOR) and circulates it throughout the IC for comment. The TOR defines the key estimative questions, determines drafting responsibilities, and sets the drafting and publication schedule. Several IC analysts from different agencies produce the initial text of the estimate. The NIC then meets to critique the draft before it is circulated to the broader IC. Representatives from the relevant IC agencies meet to hone and coordinate line-by-line the full text of the NIE. Working with their agencies, representatives also assign the confidence levels to each key judgment. IC. N� de ref. del art�culo: 72419

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