Modern Budget Forecasting in the American States: Precision, Uncertainty, and Politics - Tapa dura

Brogan provides a focused, thoughtful introduction to the budget forecasting process. The author divides the book into two sections. The first section introduces the reader to the methodology of budget forecasting. While these chapters include a great deal of technical information, Brogan does a good job of making the material accessible. Moreover, his use of mini-cases helps to illustrate his points through real-world examples. The second section examines the degree to which incumbent politicians are held accountable for inaccurate budget forecasts. This part of the book should be of greater interest to economists teaching courses in public economics. Chapter 7, looking at whether or not there are direct consequences at the polls for politicians who oversee inaccurate budget forecasts, is particularly noteworthy; the chapter includes a mini-case on the 2010 gubernatorial election, which is fascinating. Brogan suggests that this is a volume well suited to practitioners and graduate students, and that is certainly the case. Summing Up: Recommended. Graduate students, researchers/faculty, and professionals/practitioners. * CHOICE * The politics and technical methods of fiscal forecasting play a critical, yet often underappreciated, role in the budgetary process. Spending and revenue decisions, compliance with procedural rules, and the evaluation of credit ratings are all tied to forecasting. Michael Brogan's book is an excellent introduction to forecasting that should be read by scholars and practitioners interested in budgetary policy at the state level of government. -- James D. Savage, University of Virginia Brogan makes what is generally a dry subject interesting and enlightening, writing in a way that makes budget forecasting accessible to students, practitioners, and the public. The mini-case studies of various state government practices illustrate the importance of understanding the ways in which forecasting errors and inaccuracies impact policy making. -- Karen Kunz If anyone ever thought that economic forecasts are reliable and valid, or worse, could be scientific, and that politics should be divorced from budget forecasting and allocation, they should read this book on the experiences of several states. -- Krishna K. Tummala, professor emeritus (Kansas State)

Michael J. Brogan's Modern Budget Forecasting in the American States: Precision, Uncertainty, and Politics examines government budgeting through the analysis of budget forecast errors. This book is innovative in its ability to connect the technical aspects of budgeting with the politics of the budget process and offers an understanding of the budgeting process in light of the impact of the Great Recession on states' finances.