War, Peace and the Viet Cong - Tapa dura

"Pike, whose earlier study "(Viet Cong: the Organization and Techniques of the National Liberation Front of South Vietnam, MIT-81)" was justly acclaimed as the best single monograph on the murky politics of Viet-Nam, now offers his prognosis concerning its postwar politics. The book offers a careful analysis of the 'contenders and objectives' with equal emphasis on the often clashing postwar aims of the various internal and external forces that are likely to influence the eventual settlement."--"Choice"As background, Pike surveys the sweep of events from early times to the present and establishes the milieu of the life of the people in its social-psychological and its historical-political aspects. From this basis of understanding, he traces for the reader alternative possible outcomes of the struggle and evaluates their likelihood. These include the total victory or defeat of each side, or political settlement by means of formal or de facto accommodation. This careful examination or variables and contingencies is much more meaningful than flat prediction because in so complex and delicate a situation a small variation can produce widespread and unexpected results that are likely to be overlooked in a simple extrapolation of present trends.