Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures: Eight Long-Range Scenarios

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9780262028899: Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures: Eight Long-Range Scenarios
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This book presents eight varied scenarios of possible global futures, emphasizing the interconnectedness of three drivers of change: energy prices, economic growth, and geopolitics. Other published global future scenarios focus on only one of these factors, viewing, for example, economic growth as unaffected by energy prices or energy prices in isolation from geopolitical conditions. In this book, Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson offer a new approach to scenario construction that acknowledges the codependence of these key drivers and integrates qualitative analysis with a quantitative model. The eight scenarios represent possible combinations of high or low energy prices, strong or weak economic growth, and global harmony or disharmony across three time periods: the 2010s, 2020 to 2040, and 2040 to 2050. The "Regional Mercantilism" scenario, for example, envisions high energy prices, weak economic growth, and global disharmony. To impose numerical consistency across scenarios, Hillebrand and Closson employ the International Futures (IFs) model developed by Barry Hughes. (Interested readers can download this interactive model to alter or build scenarios themselves.) Assessing the probability of each scenario, they conclude that increased U.S. energy supply and the sustainability of the Chinese growth miracle are the most significant drivers over the next forty years.

About the Author:

Evan Hillebrand is Professor of International Economics the University of Kentucky's Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce. He was Staff Economist in the Directorate of Intelligence at the Central Intelligence Agency from 1972 to 2004. Stacy Closson is Assistant Professor at the University of Kentucky's Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce. From 1998 to 2002, she worked in the Office of Under Secretary of Defense for Policy in the U.S. Defense Department.

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Hillebrand, Evan; Closson, Stacy
Editorial: MIT Press Ltd, United States (2015)
ISBN 10: 0262028891 ISBN 13: 9780262028899
Nuevos Tapa dura Cantidad: 1
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The Book Depository US
(London, Reino Unido)
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Descripción MIT Press Ltd, United States, 2015. Hardback. Estado de conservación: New. 231 x 150 mm. Language: English . Brand New Book. This book presents eight varied scenarios of possible global futures, emphasizing the interconnectedness of three drivers of change: energy prices, economic growth, and geopolitics. Other published global future scenarios focus on only one of these factors, viewing, for example, economic growth as unaffected by energy prices or energy prices in isolation from geopolitical conditions. In this book, Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson offer a new approach to scenario construction that acknowledges the codependence of these key drivers and integrates qualitative analysis with a quantitative model. The eight scenarios represent possible combinations of high or low energy prices, strong or weak economic growth, and global harmony or disharmony across three time periods: the 2010s, 2020 to 2040, and 2040 to 2050. The Regional Mercantilism scenario, for example, envisions high energy prices, weak economic growth, and global disharmony. To impose numerical consistency across scenarios, Hillebrand and Closson employ the International Futures (IFs) model developed by Barry Hughes. (Interested readers can download this interactive model to alter or build scenarios themselves.) Assessing the probability of each scenario, they conclude that increased U.S. energy supply and the sustainability of the Chinese growth miracle are the most significant drivers over the next forty years. Nº de ref. de la librería AAZ9780262028899

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Hillebrand, Evan; Closson, Stacy
Editorial: MIT Press Ltd, United States (2015)
ISBN 10: 0262028891 ISBN 13: 9780262028899
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Descripción MIT Press Ltd, United States, 2015. Hardback. Estado de conservación: New. 231 x 150 mm. Language: English . Brand New Book. This book presents eight varied scenarios of possible global futures, emphasizing the interconnectedness of three drivers of change: energy prices, economic growth, and geopolitics. Other published global future scenarios focus on only one of these factors, viewing, for example, economic growth as unaffected by energy prices or energy prices in isolation from geopolitical conditions. In this book, Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson offer a new approach to scenario construction that acknowledges the codependence of these key drivers and integrates qualitative analysis with a quantitative model. The eight scenarios represent possible combinations of high or low energy prices, strong or weak economic growth, and global harmony or disharmony across three time periods: the 2010s, 2020 to 2040, and 2040 to 2050. The Regional Mercantilism scenario, for example, envisions high energy prices, weak economic growth, and global disharmony. To impose numerical consistency across scenarios, Hillebrand and Closson employ the International Futures (IFs) model developed by Barry Hughes. (Interested readers can download this interactive model to alter or build scenarios themselves.) Assessing the probability of each scenario, they conclude that increased U.S. energy supply and the sustainability of the Chinese growth miracle are the most significant drivers over the next forty years. Nº de ref. de la librería AAZ9780262028899

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Hillebrand, Evan; Closson, Stacy
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ISBN 10: 0262028891 ISBN 13: 9780262028899
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Descripción MIT Press 2015-05-08|NU-GRD-05176224, 2015. Hardcover. Estado de conservación: New. 9780262028899. Nº de ref. de la librería NU-GRD-05176224

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Hillebrand, Evan; Closson, Stacy
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Descripción MIT Press Ltd 2015-05-22, Cambridge, Mass., 2015. hardback. Estado de conservación: New. Nº de ref. de la librería 9780262028899

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Hillebrand, Evan; Closson, Stacy
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Descripción MIT Press Ltd. Hardback. Estado de conservación: new. BRAND NEW, Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures: Eight Long-Range Scenarios, Evan E. Hillebrand, Stacy Closson, This book presents eight varied scenarios of possible global futures, emphasizing the interconnectedness of three drivers of change: energy prices, economic growth, and geopolitics. Other published global future scenarios focus on only one of these factors, viewing, for example, economic growth as unaffected by energy prices or energy prices in isolation from geopolitical conditions. In this book, Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson offer a new approach to scenario construction that acknowledges the codependence of these key drivers and integrates qualitative analysis with a quantitative model. The eight scenarios represent possible combinations of high or low energy prices, strong or weak economic growth, and global harmony or disharmony across three time periods: the 2010s, 2020 to 2040, and 2040 to 2050. The "Regional Mercantilism" scenario, for example, envisions high energy prices, weak economic growth, and global disharmony. To impose numerical consistency across scenarios, Hillebrand and Closson employ the International Futures (IFs) model developed by Barry Hughes. (Interested readers can download this interactive model to alter or build scenarios themselves.) Assessing the probability of each scenario, they conclude that increased U.S. energy supply and the sustainability of the Chinese growth miracle are the most significant drivers over the next forty years. Nº de ref. de la librería B9780262028899

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Hillebrand, Evan; Closson, Stacy
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ISBN 10: 0262028891 ISBN 13: 9780262028899
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Descripción MIT Press, 2015. HRD. Estado de conservación: New. New Book. Shipped from UK in 4 to 14 days. Established seller since 2000. Nº de ref. de la librería GB-9780262028899

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Hillebrand, Evan; Closson, Stacy
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Descripción The MIT Press, 2015. Estado de conservación: New. Num Pages: 248 pages, 12 figures, 38 tables. BIC Classification: JFFR; JPSL; KCG; KNB. Category: (P) Professional & Vocational. Dimension: 237 x 163 x 19. Weight in Grams: 468. . 2015. Hardcover. . . . . . Nº de ref. de la librería V9780262028899

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Descripción Hardback. Estado de conservación: New. Not Signed; This book presents eight varied scenarios of possible global futures, emphasizing the interconnectedness of three drivers of change: energy prices, economic growth, and geopolitics. Other published global future scenarios focus on only one of these factors, viewing, for example, economic growth as u. book. Nº de ref. de la librería ria9780262028899_rkm

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Descripción The MIT Press. Estado de conservación: New. Num Pages: 248 pages, 12 figures, 38 tables. BIC Classification: JFFR; JPSL; KCG; KNB. Category: (P) Professional & Vocational. Dimension: 237 x 163 x 19. Weight in Grams: 468. . 2015. Hardcover. . . . . Books ship from the US and Ireland. Nº de ref. de la librería V9780262028899

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