"Sinopsis" puede pertenecer a otra edición de este libro.
The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty
What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper?
This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them.
'Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide ... I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person' Will Self, Independent on Sunday
'He leaps like some superhero of the mind' Boyd Tonkin, Independent
'Funny, quirky and thought-provoking ... confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot' John Cornwell, Sunday Times
'Idiosyncratically brilliant' Niall Ferguson, Sunday Telegraph
'Great fun ... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling' Stephen J. Dubner, Co-Author of Freakonomics
"Sobre este título" puede pertenecer a otra edición de este libro.
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Descripción Condición: New. pp. xxxiv + 444 + [ii] Illus. Nº de ref. del artículo: 6424678
Descripción paperback. Condición: New. Language: ENG. Nº de ref. del artículo: 9780141034591
Descripción Condición: New. In English. Nº de ref. del artículo: ria9780141034591_new
Descripción Taschenbuch. Condición: Neu. Neuware -THE BLACK SWAN is a concept that will change the way you look at the world. Black Swans underlie almost everything, from the rise of religions, to events in our own lives. A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principle characteristics: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. Why do we always ignore the phenomenon of Black Swans until after they occur As Taleb reveals, we are hard-wired not to truly estimate risk, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and shows us how to face the world. 444 pp. Englisch. Nº de ref. del artículo: 9780141034591
Descripción Condición: New. What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This title deals with this questions. Num Pages: 480 pages, Illustrations. BIC Classification: GPF. Category: (G) General (US: Trade). Dimension: 197 x 129 x 28. Weight in Grams: 352. 2008. 02nd Edition. Paperback. . . . . Books ship from the US and Ireland. Nº de ref. del artículo: 9780141034591
Descripción Paperback / softback. Condición: New. This item is printed on demand. New copy - Usually dispatched within 5-9 working days. Nº de ref. del artículo: C9780141034591
Descripción PAP. Condición: New. New Book. Shipped from UK. Established seller since 2000. Nº de ref. del artículo: GB-9780141034591
Descripción Taschenbuch. Condición: Neu. Neuware -Ein 'Black Swan' ist ein sehr unwahrscheinliches Ereignis mit drei Hauptcharakteristika: es ist nicht vorhersehbar, es hat massivste Auswirkungen, und es wird hinterher plötzlich als vorhersagbar und nicht überraschend dargestellt. 444 pp. Englisch. Nº de ref. del artículo: 9780141034591
Descripción Paperback. Condición: Brand New. 480 pages. 7.64x5.04x1.26 inches. In Stock. Nº de ref. del artículo: __0141034599
Descripción Taschenbuch. Condición: Neu. Neuware -Ein 'Black Swan' ist ein sehr unwahrscheinliches Ereignis mit drei Hauptcharakteristika: es ist nicht vorhersehbar, es hat massivste Auswirkungen, und es wird hinterher plötzlich als vorhersagbar und nicht überraschend dargestellt. 444 pp. Englisch. Nº de ref. del artículo: 9780141034591