kahneman daniel sibony olivier sunstein (186 resultados)

Condición: good. Book is in good condition and may include underlining highlighting and minimal wear. The book can also include "From the library of" labels. May not contain miscellaneous items toys, dvds, etc. . We offer 100% money back guarantee and 24 7 customer service.

Condición: good. Gently used with minimal wear on the corners and cover. A few pages may contain light highlighting or writing, but the text remains fully legible. Dust jacket may be missing, and supplemental materials like CDs or codes may not be included. May be ex-library with library markings. Ships promptly!

Hardcover. Condición: Very Good. No Jacket. Former library book; May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 2.15.

Condición: As New. Unread book in perfect condition.

Paperback. Condición: Very Good. Noise This book is in very good condition and will be shipped within 24 hours of ordering. The cover may have some limited signs of wear but the pages are clean, intact and the spine remains undamaged. This book has clearly been well maintained and looked after thus far. Money back guarantee if you are not satisfied. See all our books here, order more than 1 book and get discounted shipping. .

Soft cover. Condición: New. ISBN:9780008309039 N.A.

Condición: As New. Unread book in perfect condition.

Hardcover. Condición: Good.

Condición: As New. Unread book in perfect condition.

Tapa blanda. Condición: Nuevo.

Hardcover. Condición: Very Good. Estado de la sobrecubierta: Very Good. 1st Edition. includes VG dustjacket. 1st edition. 1st impression. Size: 8vo - over 7¾ - 9¾" tall. Book.

paperback. Condición: Very Good. Orders shipped daily from the UK. Professional seller.

Condición: Neuf.

Condición: Neuf.

Condición: New.

458 s. Förlagsband med skyddsomslag.

Paperback. Condición: Brand New. 480 pages. German language. 8.50x5.35x1.46 inches. In Stock.

paperback. Condición: Acceptable. This is a paper back book: Used - Acceptable: All pages and the cover are intact, but shrink wrap, dust covers, or boxed set case may be missing. Pages may include limited notes, highlighting, or minor water damage but the text is readable. Item may be missing bundled media.

Condición: New.

Condición: new.

Paperback. Condición: New. NEW; Escrito pelos maiores especialistas do mundo em pensamento estratégico e autores dos best-sellers Rápido e devagar e Nudge, este livro vai mudar sua maneira de pensar e tomar decisões.Imagine que dois médicos na mesma cidade façam diagnósticos distintos a pacientes com o mesmo problema ou que dois juízes no mesmo tribunal deem sentenças diferentes a pessoas que cometeram o mesmo crime. Agora, suponha que este mesmo médico e este mesmo juiz tomem decisões diversas dependendo se é manhã ou tarde, segunda-feira ou quarta-feira, antes ou depois do almoço. Estes são exemplos de ruído: variabilidade em julgamentos que deveriam ser idênticos.Neste livro, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony e Cass R. Sunstein mostram que o ruído tem efeitos prejudiciais em muitos campos, incluindo medicina, direito, saúde pública, previsão econômica, ciência forense, proteção à criança, avaliações de desempenho e seleção de pessoal. No entanto, indivíduos e organizações frequentemente ignoram seu impacto, a um grande custo.Baseado em extensa pesquisa e repleto de ideias originais, este livro explica como e por que os seres humanos são tão suscetíveis ao ruído e aos vieses ao fazer escolhas. Revela também que, com algumas soluções simples, podemos reduzir ambos e, assim, tomar decisões muito melhores. "Prepare-se para algumas das maiores mentes do mundo ajudarem você a avaliar pessoas, tomar decisões e resolver problemas." - Adam Grant"A maior fonte de políticas ineficazes muitas vezes não são vieses, corrupção ou má vontade, mas três 'is': intuição, ignorância e inércia. Este livro demonstra de forma magistral por que eles são tão presentes e o que podemos fazer para combatê-los. Uma leitura essencial e esclarecedora." - Esther Duflo"Um tour de force de erudição e texto acessível." - The New York Times"Bem-pesquisado, convincente e prático. Todos os acadêmicos, formuladores de políticas públicas e líderes deveriam ler este livro. Pessoas com o poder e a persistência necessários para aplicar as ideias deste livro tomarão decisões mais humanas e justas, salvarão vidas e evitarão que tempo, dinheiro e talento sejam desperdiçados." - The Washington Post.

Condición: new.

Condición: Very good.

Condición: new. Pages: 480 Language: Estonian. Kujutage ette, et kaks arsti panevad samale patsiendile erinevad diagnoosid või kaks kohtunikku määravad kohtualusele erinevad karistused. Need on näited otsuste varieeruvusest, mis peaksid olema identsed. Kujutage nüüd ette, et kõnealused arstid ja kohtunikud jõuavad erinevate otsusteni sõltuvalt sellest, kas on hommik või pärastlõuna, esmaspäev või kolmapäev. Kõikjal, kus on otsused, olgu isiklikud või töised, on ka müra. Lisaks ebaõiglusele loob see märkimisväärset majanduslikku kahju. Näiteks: kui tarkvaraarendajatel paluti eri päevadel hinnata samale ülesandele kuluvat aega, varieerusid tulemused tundides keskmiselt 71 protsenti. Katsed on kinnitanud sedagi, et hinnang töötaja sooritusele sõltub pigem selle andjast kui tulemusest. Kahneman, Sibony ja Sunstein kinnitavad oma menukis, et müra hulka saab vaid mõne lihtsa abinõuga tuntavalt vähendada ning jõuda seeläbi paremate otsusteni. Nende raamat uurib: - Müra ja nihke erinevust, näidates, et organisatsioonid võivad vahel olla lausa shokeerivalt mürased. Väite tõestuseks tutvustavad autorid müraauditi mõtet, mis on loodud selle mõõtmiseks. - Inimeste otsustuste olemust, kirjeldades, kuidas mõõta täpsust ja viga. Lisaks selgitatakse juhumüra olemust, mis kipub eriti hoogsalt tekkima grupiaruteludes näiliselt asjassepuutumatute tegurite tõttu (kes kõneleb esimesena jne). - Prognoosivaid otsustusi, samuti reeglite, valemite ja algoritmide olulisi eeliseid inimeste ees. Vastupidiselt levinud arvamusele ei ole asi niivõrd reeglite ülimuslikus tarkuses, vaid nende müratuses. - Psühholoogia seda osa, mis selgitab müra peamisi põhjuseid. Autorid uurivad, miks jääb müra märkamata ning miks meid ei üllata sündmused ja otsustused, mida polnud võimalik ennustada. - Kuidas oma otsustusi parandada ja vigu vältida? Autorid tutvustavad mitut müra vähendamise tehnikat, samuti vahehinnangute reeglistikku ehk võimaluste kaalumise käsitlust, mis sisaldab mitut olulist otsusehügieeni elementi ning mille eesmärk on jõuda usaldusväärsemate ja vähem müraste otsustusteni. - Milline on õige müratase? Mõnes valdkonnas ei olegi võimalik müra kõrvaldada, teistes oleks see liiga kulukas, kolmandas kahjustaks müra vähendamine olulisi konkurentsieeliseid. 9789916635575.

Hardcover. Condición: As New. Estado de la sobrecubierta: As New. 1st Edition. 1st Printing. Unread as new copy.

First edition of this work by the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and SlowÂand the co-author ofÂNudge,Âa revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better onesâ""a tour de forceâ (New York Times). Octavo, original boards. Boldly signed by Daniel Kahneman on the front free endpaper. Fine in a fine dust jacket. Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patientsâ"or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicantsâ"or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgmentâ"and what we can do about it.

paperback. Condición: New. New. book.