Superforecasting - Tapa blanda

"The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone." (Economist)

"A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended." (Independent)

"This marvelous book tells an exciting story of ordinary people beating experts in a very serious game. It is also a manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it." (Daniel Kahneman)

"Full of excellent advice – it is the best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity." (The Times)

"Philip Tetlock has transformed the science of prediction." (Spectator)

"The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow." (Wall Street Journal)

"Fascinating and breezily written." (Sunday Times)

"Superforecasting is a fascinating book." (Daily Mail)

"Superforecasting is a very good book. In fact it is essential reading." (Management Today)

"The best way to know if an idea is right is to see if it predicts the future. But which ideas, which methods, which people have a track record of non-obvious predictions vindicated by the course of events? The answers will surprise you, and they have radical implications for politics, policy, journalism, education, and even epistemology – how we can best gain knowledge about the world. The casual style of Superforecasting belies the profundity of its message." (Steven Pinker)

WINNER OF THE CMI MANAGEMENT FUTURES BOOK OF THE YEAR AWARD


What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?

Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it.

In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.