"Sobre este título" puede pertenecer a otra edición de este libro.
Gastos de envío:
EUR 2,44
A Estados Unidos de America
Descripción Condición: New. Nº de ref. del artículo: 26707706-n
Descripción Condición: New. Brand New! Not Overstocks or Low Quality Book Club Editions! Direct From the Publisher! We're not a giant, faceless warehouse organization! We're a small town bookstore that loves books and loves it's customers! Buy from Lakeside Books!. Nº de ref. del artículo: OTF-S-9780804136716
Descripción Soft Cover. Condición: new. Nº de ref. del artículo: 9780804136716
Descripción Paperback or Softback. Condición: New. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction 0.5. Book. Nº de ref. del artículo: BBS-9780804136716
Descripción Condición: New. Brand New. Nº de ref. del artículo: 0804136718
Descripción Paperback. Condición: New. Brand New!. Nº de ref. del artículo: 0804136718
Descripción Condición: New. Book is in NEW condition. Nº de ref. del artículo: 0804136718-2-1
Descripción Paperback. Condición: new. Paperback. NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weeks meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleincluding a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancerwho set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. Theyve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. Theyve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Ladens compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesnt require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the futurewhether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily lifeand is destined to become a modern classic. Shipping may be from multiple locations in the US or from the UK, depending on stock availability. Nº de ref. del artículo: 9780804136716
Descripción Paperback. Condición: New. Nº de ref. del artículo: BKZN9780804136716
Descripción paperback. Condición: New. NO-VALUE. "Product DescriptionNEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST"The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow."-Jason Zweig, The Wall Street JournalEveryone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people-including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer-who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future-whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life-and is destined to become a modern classic.ReviewA New York Times Editors' ChoiceA Washington Post BestsellerA Hudson Booksellers Best Business Interest Book of 2015Longlisted for the Financial Times and McKinsey Business Book of the Year AwardWinner of the Axiom Business Book Award in Business Theory (Gold Medal)"A top choice [for best book of 2015] among the world s biggest names in finance and economics. Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer, Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist Joe LaVorgna, and Citigroup Vice Chairman Peter Orszag were among those giving it a thumbs-up."-Bloomberg Business"The material in Superforecasting is new, and includes a compendium of best practices for prediction The accuracy that ordinary people regularly attained through their meticulous application did amaze me [It offers] us all an opportunity to understand and react more intelligently to the confusing world around us."-New York Times Book Review"Tetlock's thesis is that politics and human affairs are not inscrutable mysteries. Instead, they are a bit like weather forecasting, where short-term predictions are possible and reasonably accurate. The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone."-The Economist"Tetlock s work is fascinating and important, and he and Gardner have written it up here with verve."-The Financial Times"Superforecasting is the most important scientific study I ve ever read on prediction."-Cass R. Sunstein, The Bloomberg View"Just as modern medicine began when a farsighted few began to collect data and keep track of outcomes, to trust objective 'scoring' over their own intuiti". Nº de ref. del artículo: BKZN9780804136716