Scenarios: Art of Strategic Conversation - Tapa dura

"Artful scenario spinning is a form of convergent thinking about divergent fututes. It ensures not that you are always right about the future but----better----that you are almost never wrong about the future."----Stewart Brand This groundbreaking book from University of Strathclyde professor Kees van der Heijden shows how to use scenarios----a powerful new approach to strategic planning----to pilot your company profitably through unknown territory. When initially developed, scenario planning helped companies understand external change----change in markets, the competitive arena, technology, demographics, etc. In this book, van der Heijden goes one giant step further. After tackling external forces, he shows you how to apply the logic of scenario planning to internal forces. A dynamic scenario--based approach to the strategic planning and organizational learning from an internationally respected authority Arms managers with tools, concepts, and techniques they need to profitable pilot their organizations into an uncertain future

Scenarios The Art of Strategic Conversation "Kees van der Heijden has written the most comprehensive, detailed and insightful guide to understanding the business environment in a way most useful to business. No one has mastered the art of bringing that insight to bear in the real world of business with greater depth than Kees." Peter Schwartz, Chairman, Global Business Network; author of The Art of the Long View. The only constants in the current business environment are turbulence and change. When initially developed at Royal Dutch/Shell, scenario planning helped companies understand external change - change in markets, the competitive arena, technology, demographics and so on. In this book, Kees van der Heijden takes the art of scenario planning one giant step further. After showing you how to understand how the world around you is changing, he then shows you how to move your organization to meet the future by linking scenario thinking and your Business Idea in an ongoing strategic conversation. The result is a learning organization with the finely honed ability to track the marketplace and business environment. How Scenarios will help you think through the way forward, and keep you thinking as you move.
* Understand the basis of an organization's success - articulate its central business idea
* Break out of the organization's restrictive "thinking box" - take a wider perspective, scenaric view
* Develop scenarios as alternative ways of interpreting the present - see beyond current range of vision
* Become clearer about the many apparently unrelated developments - build a systemic framework using a story line
* Be more secure with the future - understand uncertainty
* Do it by using a practical methodology
* Nurture and sustain an ongoing strategic conversation throughout the organization
"The span of this book is unusually wide: it goes from the philosophy of scenario thinking to the minute practicalities of how to do it. This book is, in my view, the best guide in a field where it is easy to go astray and where guidance is precious." Pierre Wack, Former Head of Scenario Planning, Royal Dutch/Shell