Artículos relacionados a Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making Beyond the Numbers
Sinopsis
Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry s actuarial tables and the gambler s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provides no useful guidance to future outcomes, and for which so-called experts pretend answers.Instead of accepting false certainties, John Kay and Mervyn King advise that we should adopt robust business, policy, and personal strategies that are resilient to an uncertain future. Within the security of these reference narratives, uncertainty can be embraced.
"Sinopsis" puede pertenecer a otra edición de este libro.
Acerca de los autores
John Kay is an economist and Fellow of St. John's College, University of Oxford.
Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England, teaches at New York University and the London School of Economics.
"Sobre este título" puede pertenecer a otra edición de este libro.
EUR 8,91
EUR 6,78 gastos de envío desde Estados Unidos de America a España
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envíoComprar nuevo
Ver este artículo
EUR 19,36
EUR 3,44 gastos de envío desde Estados Unidos de America a España
Destinos, gastos y plazos de envíoOtras ediciones populares con el mismo título
Resultados de la búsqueda para Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making Beyond the Numbers
Imagen de archivo
Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Publicado por
W. W. Norton & Company, 2021
ISBN 10: 0393541983
ISBN 13: 9780393541984
Antiguo o usado
Paperback
Librería: ThriftBooks-Dallas, Dallas, TX, Estados Unidos de America
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Paperback. Condición: Good. No Jacket. Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 1.05. Nº de ref. del artículo: G0393541983I3N00
Cantidad disponible: 1 disponibles
Imagen de archivo
Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Publicado por
W. W. Norton & Company, 2021
ISBN 10: 0393541983
ISBN 13: 9780393541984
Antiguo o usado
Paperback
Librería: ThriftBooks-Dallas, Dallas, TX, Estados Unidos de America
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Paperback. Condición: Very Good. No Jacket. May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 1.05. Nº de ref. del artículo: G0393541983I4N00
Cantidad disponible: 1 disponibles
Imagen del vendedor
Radical Uncertainty
Librería: Rarewaves USA, OSWEGO, IL, Estados Unidos de America
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Paperback. Condición: New. Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one-not least Steve Jobs-knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package-what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?-demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit. Nº de ref. del artículo: LU-9780393541984
Cantidad disponible: 8 disponibles
Imagen de archivo
Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Publicado por
W. W. Norton & Company, 2021
ISBN 10: 0393541983
ISBN 13: 9780393541984
Nuevo
Tapa blanda
Librería: Kennys Bookshop and Art Galleries Ltd., Galway, GY, Irlanda
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Condición: New. 2021. Paperback. . . . . . Nº de ref. del artículo: V9780393541984
Cantidad disponible: 15 disponibles
Imagen del vendedor
Radical Uncertainty
Librería: Rarewaves USA United, OSWEGO, IL, Estados Unidos de America
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Paperback. Condición: New. Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one-not least Steve Jobs-knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package-what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?-demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit. Nº de ref. del artículo: LU-9780393541984
Cantidad disponible: 8 disponibles
Imagen del vendedor
Radical Uncertainty
Librería: Rarewaves.com UK, London, Reino Unido
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Paperback. Condición: New. Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one-not least Steve Jobs-knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package-what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?-demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit. Nº de ref. del artículo: LU-9780393541984
Cantidad disponible: 8 disponibles
Imagen de archivo
Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Publicado por
W. W. Norton & Company, 2021
ISBN 10: 0393541983
ISBN 13: 9780393541984
Nuevo
Tapa blanda
Librería: Kennys Bookstore, Olney, MD, Estados Unidos de America
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Condición: New. 2021. Paperback. . . . . . Books ship from the US and Ireland. Nº de ref. del artículo: V9780393541984
Cantidad disponible: 15 disponibles
Imagen del vendedor
Radical Uncertainty
Librería: Rarewaves.com USA, London, LONDO, Reino Unido
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Paperback. Condición: New. Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one-not least Steve Jobs-knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package-what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?-demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit. Nº de ref. del artículo: LU-9780393541984
Cantidad disponible: 8 disponibles
Imagen del vendedor
Radical Uncertainty : Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Publicado por
W. W. Norton & Company, 2021
ISBN 10: 0393541983
ISBN 13: 9780393541984
Nuevo
Tapa blanda
Librería: GreatBookPrices, Columbia, MD, Estados Unidos de America
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Condición: New. Nº de ref. del artículo: 41730217-n
Cantidad disponible: 15 disponibles
Imagen del vendedor
Radical Uncertainty : Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Publicado por
W. W. Norton & Company, 2021
ISBN 10: 0393541983
ISBN 13: 9780393541984
Antiguo o usado
Tapa blanda
Librería: GreatBookPrices, Columbia, MD, Estados Unidos de America
Calificación del vendedor: 5 de 5 estrellas
Condición: As New. Unread book in perfect condition. Nº de ref. del artículo: 41730217
Cantidad disponible: 15 disponibles