On Second Thought: Outsmarting Your Mind's Hard-Wired Habits

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9780307461643: On Second Thought: Outsmarting Your Mind's Hard-Wired Habits

Our lives are composed of millions of choices, ranging from trivial to life-changing and momentous. Luckily, our brains have evolved a number of mental shortcuts, biases, and tricks that allow us to quickly negotiate this endless array of decisions. We don’t want to rationally deliberate every choice we make, and thanks to these cognitive rules of thumb, we don’t need to. 
 
Yet these hard-wired shortcuts, mental wonders though they may be, can also be perilous.   They can distort our thinking in ways that are often invisible to us, leading us to make poor decisions, to be easy targets for manipulators...and they can even cost us our lives. 
 
The truth is, despite all the buzz about the power of gut-instinct decision-making in recent years, sometimes it’s better to stop and say, “On second thought . . .”  
 
The trick, of course, lies in knowing when to trust that instant response, and when to question it.  In On Second Thought, acclaimed science writer Wray Herbert provides the first guide to achieving that balance.  Drawing on real-world examples and cutting-edge research, he takes us on a fascinating, wide-ranging journey through our innate cognitive traps and tools, exposing the hidden dangers lurking in familiarity and consistency; the obstacles that keep us from accurately evaluating risk and value; the delusions that make it hard for us to accurately predict the future; the perils of the human yearning for order and simplicity; the ways our fears can color our very perceptions . . . and much more. 
 
Along the way, Herbert reveals the often-bizarre cross-connections these shortcuts have secretly ingrained in our brains, answering such questions as why jury decisions may be shaped by our ancient need for cleanliness; what the state of your desk has to do with your political preferences; why loneliness can literally make us shiver; how drawing two dots on a piece of paper can desensitize us to violence... and how the very typeface on this page is affecting your decision about whether or not to buy this book.   
 
Ultimately, On Second Thought is both a captivating exploration of the workings of the mind and an invaluable resource for anyone who wants to learn how to make smarter, better judgments every day. 
From the Hardcover edition.

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About the Author:

WRAY HERBERT has been writing about psychology and human behavior for more than 25 years, including regular columns for Newsweek and Scientific American Mind.  He has also been science and health editor at US News & World Report, psychology editor for Science News, and editor-in-chief of Psychology Today. He currently serves as director for science communication at the Association for Psychological Science, where he writes a popular blog about the latest in psychological research. He lives in Washington, D.C.
From the Hardcover edition.

Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.:

Introduction
 
On February 12, 1995 , a party of three seasoned backcountry
skiers set out for a day on the pristine slopes of Utah’s Wasatch
Mountain Range. Steve Carruthers, thirty-seven years old, was the
most experienced of the group, though they were all skilled skiers
and mountaineers. Carruthers had skied these hills many times and
was intimately familiar with the terrain. Their plan was to trek over
the divide from Big Cottonwood Canyon to Porter Fork, the next
canyon to the north.
 
Two hours out, they met another skiing party. A storm had
dropped almost two feet of new snow on the range the day before,
and the two groups stood together for about five minutes, chatting
about the best routes through the mountains. A couple of skiers in
the other party were a bit spooked by the foggy conditions, but they
all decided that they would be okay if they chose a prudent route across
the lower slopes. Carruthers’ party broke trail through the sparse woods
of Gobbler’s Knob.
 
Within the hour, Carruthers was dead. As the skiers headed
across a shallow, treed expanse, they triggered an avalanche. More
than a hundred metric tons of snow roared down the mountainside
at fifty miles an hour, blanketing the slope and pinning Carruthers
against an aspen. The other party heard the avalanche and rushed to
the rescue, but by the time they dug Carruthers out, he was unconscious.
He never regained awareness.
 
The other two skiers in Carruthers’ group survived, but they
faced some serious criticism back home. What were they thinking?
This pass was well known as avalanche terrain, and February was
considered high hazard season. The chatter in the tight-knit skiing
community was that Carruthers had been reckless, that despite his
experience he had ignored obvious signs of danger and tempted fate.
 
None of this rang true to Ian McCammon. McCammon had
known Carruthers for years, and the two had been climbing buddies
at one time. Sure, Carruthers may have been a risk taker when he
was younger, but he had matured. Just recently, while the two men
were riding a local ski lift together, Carruthers had talked adoringly
about his lovely wife, Nancy, and his four-year-old daughter, Lucia.
His days of derring-do were over, he had told McCammon. It was
time to settle down.
 
So what happened on that fateful afternoon? What skewed this
experienced backcountry skier’s judgment that he would put himself
and his party in harm’s way? Did he perish in an avoidable accident?
Saddened and perplexed by his friend’s death, McCammon determined
to figure out what went wrong.
 
McCammon is an experienced backcountry skier in his own
right, and a wilderness instructor, but he is also a scientist. He has a
Ph.D. in mechanical engineering, and as a researcher at the University
of Utah, he once worked on robotics and aerospace systems for 
NASA and the Defense Department. He already knew snow science
pretty well, so he began reading everything he could on the science of
risk and decision making. He ended up studying the details of more
than seven hundred deadly avalanches that took place between 1972
and 2003, to see if he could find any commonalities that might explain
his friend’s untimely death.
 
With the rigor of an engineer, he systematically categorized all
the avalanches according to several factors well known to backcountry
skiers as risks: recent snowfall or windstorm, terrain features like
cliffs and gullies, thawing and other signs of instability, and so forth.
He computed an “exposure score” to rate the risk that preceded every
accident.
 
Then he gathered as much information as he could on the ill-fated
skiers themselves, all 1,355 of them: the makeup and dynamics of the
skiing party, the expertise of the group leader as well as the others,
plus anything that was known about the hours and minutes leading
up to the fatal moment. Then he crunched all the data together.
 
His published results were intriguing. He found many patterns
in the accidents, including several poor choices that should not have
been made by experienced skiers. He concluded that these foolish decisions
could be explained by six common thinking lapses, and he
wrote up the work in a paper titled “Evidence of Heuristic Traps in
Recreational Avalanche Accidents.” The paper has become a staple of
modern backcountry training and has no doubt saved many lives.
 
Heuristics are cognitive rules of thumb, hard-wired mental
Shortcuts that everyone uses every day in routine decision making
and judgment. The study of heuristics is one of the most robust areas
of scientific research today, producing hundreds of academic articles
a year, yet the concept is little known outside the labs and offices of
academia. This book is an attempt to remedy that.
 
Heuristics are normally helpful—indeed, they are crucial to
getting through the myriad of decisions we face every day without
overthinking every choice. But they’re imperfect and often irrational.
They can be traps, as they were in the frozen mountain pass where
Carruthers perished. Much has been written in the past couple of
years about the wonders of the rapid, automatic human mind and
gut-level decision making. And indeed the unconscious mind is a
wonder. But it is also perilous. The shortcuts that allow us to navigate
each day with ease are the same ones that can potentially trip
us up in our ordinary judgments and choices, in everything from
health to finance to romance.
 
Most of us are not backcountry skiers, and we will probably
never face the exact choices that Carruthers and his friends faced at
Gobbler’s Knob. But just because the traps are not life threatening
does not mean they aren’t life changing. Here are a few of the heuristics
that shaped the backcountry skiers’ poor choices—and may be
shaping yours in ways you don’t even recognize.
 
Consider the “familiarity heuristic.” This is one of the cognitive
shortcuts that McCammon identified as a contributing factor in
many of the avalanche incidents he studied. The familiarity heuristic
is one of the most robust heuristics known, and indeed one of
the original heuristics identified and studied by pioneers in cognitive
science. It is a potent mental tool that we draw on every day for
hundreds of decisions, and basically what it says is this: if something
comes quickly to mind, trust it. It must be available in your memory
for a reason, so go with it. The basic rule of thumb is that familiar
equals better equals safer.
 
That’s a very useful rule for, say, grocery shopping. There are
potentially thousands and thousands of choices that must be made
every time you enter your local supermarket. But what if you actually
had to make every one of those judgments, comparing every kind of
yogurt and every couscous brand before making a selection? You’d
be paralyzed. So instead you spot the brand of yogurt or couscous
you’ve bought dozens of times before; you grab it, you pay for it, and
you’re out of there. No need to study every item on the shelf. It’s also
a useful rule for ER physicians, airline pilots, and soccer players—
people who have to make rapid-fire decisions and are trained to
quickly identify familiar patterns and react.
 
Heuristics are amazing time savers, which makes them essential
to our busy lives. Many, like the familiarity heuristic, are an amalgam
of habit and experience. We don’t want to deliberate every minor
choice we make every day, and we don’t need to. But there are always
risks when we stop deliberating. McCammon’s avalanche victims, for
example, were almost all experienced backcountry skiers, and indeed
almost half had had some formal training in avalanche awareness.
This expertise didn’t guarantee that they would make the smartest
choices. Paradoxically, their expertise may have hurt them. They were
so familiar with the terrain that it seemed safe—simply because it always
had been safe before. It was familiar, and thus unthreatening.
The skiers let down their guard because they all remembered successful
outings that looked pretty much the same as the treacherous
one. In fact, McCammon found in his research that there were significantly
more avalanche accidents when the skiers knew the specific
locale, compared to ski parties exploring novel terrain.
 
Most of the avalanches in our modern lives have nothing to do
with snow. The familiarity heuristic (including the related fluency
heuristic, discussed in Chapter 4) has been widely studied in the area
of consumer choice and personal finance—and not just how we buy
groceries. Princeton psychologists have shown that people are more
apt to buy shares in new companies if the names of the companies
are easy to read and say, which actually affects the performance of
the stock in the short run. University of Michigan psychologists have
shown that language (and even the typeface in which something is
printed) can affect all sorts of perceptions: whether a roller coaster
seems too risky or a job seems too demanding to take on. Even
very subtle manipulations of cognitive familiarity are shaping your
choices, big and small, every day.
 
So familiarity and comfort can be traps. But the fact is, Carruthers’
decision making really started to go wrong long before he
even started waxing his skis. It started back in the warmth of the
living room, when he or one of his buddies said, “Hey, let’s take a
run out to Gobbler’s Knob tomorrow.” At that point, they triggered
another powerful cognitive tool, known as the “default heuristic” or
“consistency heuristic.” At that point, with their adventure still an abstract
notion, they no doubt discussed the conditions, the pros and
cons, and made a deliberate assessment of the risks of going out. But
once they made that initial decision, the cold calculation stopped.
They made a mental commitment, and that thought took on power.
 
We have a powerful bias for sticking with what we already have,
not switching course. Unless there is some compelling reason not to,
we let our minds default to what’s given or what has already been
decided. We rely on stay-the-course impulses all the time, often with
good results. Constant switching can be perilous, in everything from
financial matters to romantic judgments, so we have become averse
to hopping around.
 
But this powerful urge for steadiness can also lock us into a bad
choice. Just imagine Carruthers’ ski party standing out there on the
slope, chatting with the members of the other ski party. At this point,
they could have made the decision to turn around and go home. Perhaps
the snowpack seemed too unstable, or a certain gully looked
worrisome. The skiers were no doubt taking in all this information,
but they were not deliberating the pros and cons with their full mental
powers because they had really already made their choice. The
heuristic mind doesn’t like to second-guess itself once it has momentum,
and these skiers already had two hours of trekking invested in
this decision. It would have taken a lot of mental effort to process all
the logical arguments for turning around and going home.
 
So they didn’t. They stuck to their plan because they were cognitively
biased toward going ahead rather than switching gears. They
were stubborn, but not in the way we commonly use the word to
mean an obstinate attitude. Their brains were being stubborn, in the
most fundamental way, right down in the neurons. We default hundreds
of times a day, simply because it’s effortful to switch plans. We
stay in relationships that are going nowhere simply because it’s easier
than getting out. We buy the same brand of car our father did and
hesitate to rearrange our stock portfolio. And we uncritically defer to
others who make decisions for us—policy makers, who make rules
and laws based on the assumption that we will act consistently rather
than question. Similarly, it’s safer to need an organ transplant in Paris
than in New York City. You’ll find out why in Chapter 20, but the
short answer is that it’s the default heuristic at work.
 
There were other heuristics reinforcing the ill-fated skiers’ commitment.
They probably got some additional mental nudging from
what McCammon calls the “acceptance heuristic.” Also known as
the “mimicry heuristic,” it is basically the strong tendency to make
choices that we believe will get us noticed—and more important,
approved—by others. It’s deep-wired, likely derived from our ancient
need for belonging and safety. It can be seen in the satisfaction we get
from clubs and other social rituals, like precision military formations
and choral singing. It’s a crucial element in group cohesion, but we
often apply it in social situations where it’s inappropriate—or even
harmful, as it was in many of the accidents that McCammon studied.
His analysis showed a much higher rate of risky decision making in
groups of six or more skiers, where there was a larger “audience” to
please.
 
Then the snow itself can make skiers do senseless things. Every
skier knows the phrase “powder fever,” which means the unreasonable
desire to put down the first tracks in freshly fallen snow. Powder
fever begins with the first flakes of a long-awaited snowstorm and
peaks as soon as conditions permit the first treks out. The virgin
powder won’t last long; everyone knows that. So for a few hours it’s
like gold, valuable simply because of its scarcity.
 
Psychologists think this “scarcity heuristic” derives from our fundamental
need for personal freedom. We have a visceral reaction to
any restriction on our prerogatives as individuals, and one way this
manifests itself is in distorted notions about scarcity and value. Humans
have made gold valuable because there is not all that much of it
to go around, not because it’s a particularly useful metal. So it is with
new powder, and so it is with anything else we might perceive as rare,
from land to free time. Scarcity can even skew our choices of lovers
and partners, if we’re not careful.
 
These are just a few of the heuristics you will learn about in the
chapters ahead. This book is not intended to be exhaustive. Some psychologists
estimate that there are hundreds of powerful heuristics at
work in the human brain, some working in tandem with others, sometimes
reinforcing and sometimes undermining one another. As readers
will see in the chapters ahead, aspects of the arithmetic heuristic
o...

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